Battling the Books: NBA Game 2 Play

NBA Prediction LA Clippers at Denver Nuggets

Monday, April 21st at 10 pm EST
Line: LAC -1′, 219

Game two of this series opened at Denver -1, but the Fav has flipped; it’s now LAC -2′.
(It would be nice to have charts showing the record of playoff games in the NBA where the favorite has flipped, unfortunately I don’t have them. But that will be my homework for today and if I find anything interesting I’ll post it in the PredictEm forum.)

The total opened at 219. There are still a few books at 219 (including our sponsor Bovada) but 218′ is starting to show up and based on recent postseason trends I expect it’s going to continue to drop so I’m buying this one now. Note: You’re wasting money if you’re not betting at a reduced juice bookie!

I’m riding the Under tonight.

Game one in this series opened at 225, closed at 224. The game landed on 222, for an Under.
Books opened the total for game two at six points fewer than game one, despite 222 points scored. Based on that alone, a cursory look would make you consider the Over for tonight.
But . . . that’s why handicappers have to dig deeper if they want to beat the books.

Look closer at Game one and you’ll see that it went into OT, where 26 points were scored.
That means at the end of regulation, only 196 points were scored. That’s a whopping 29 points fewer than the total the books hung on Game 1. In that light, dropping the total from 225 to 219 doesn’t look like such a bargain on the Over anymore.

But as I always say, dig deeper.

Let’s look at the quarters.
62, 40, 45, 49.
Anything stick out there?
Notice any anomaly?

In the first quarter, they shot lights out, including seven made three pointers.
Take out the anomaly, and the average score per quarter was just 44.6 points.
Extrapolated out over a full game, that would come to 178.4 total points scored.
That number is 40 points fewer than the total I can buy on tonight’s game at 219.

Regular season scores between these two were 213, 248, 218 and 229.
Two of the four stayed Under tonight’s total, one of them barely, by one point. But that was the regular season. In the postseason, the games get tighter. Overall, this postseason, Unders have an 8-6 advantage.

And tonight’s games are the first postseason games this year being played on a Monday.
Does that matter?
Here’s my take on Moods and Rhythms.

When are you in a better mood, Friday evening or Monday morning? Most people would say Friday evening, especially people who work the standard Monday to Friday work week. These people are generally in a better state of mind on a Friday rather than a Monday.

Although professional sports teams don’t work a standard Monday to Friday week there ARE moods associated with games. These moods are dictated by factors such as day game or night game, home or on the road, whether they are on a winning streak or a losing streak, and other factors that affect their play, their rhythm.

And, though they don’t work the standard Monday to Friday, teams are also affected by days of the week.
So when I’m handicapping a game, I look at days of the week. I don’t look at Tuesday – Thursday but I do sometimes look at and break down numbers for Friday nights, Sunday mornings, and Mondays. It’s just another stat to factor in when looking for an edge.
Like chess, you have to see the board from every angle. The more handicapping angles you check, the better chance of success.

Is there any edge to be found by looking at playoff games based on the day of the week? Here are some numbers to consider:

Last year, game two being played on a Monday, Unders were 2-0. One game stayed under by 23′, the other by a single point.

Let’s go back one more year.
Two years ago, game two being played on a Monday, Unders were . . . 2-0.
One game stayed under by 31′, the other by 18′.

Three years ago?
Game two being played on a Monday, Unders were 1-1. One game stayed under by 8′ points, the other went Over by 7.

That’s 5-1 to the Un over the past three years.
Coincidence?
Relevant?
Are moods and rhythms worth factoring in, and if so, how much do you weigh them towards your overall decision?
It’s up to each individual ‘capper to make that call.

Today, two of the three unique models I use for handicapping totals say to take the LAC/Den game Over.
In the postseason, one method has a record of 1-2. The other is 2-2. Neither has a winning record, and they are a combined 3-4.
Once thus far in this postseason I had a game where both said take the same game Over.
It was Saturday, the Minnesota/LAL game.
The total was 215′, it landed on 212 for an Under.
I used it for a winner in my Saturday article and I’m sticking with what works and going back to it again.

Going back to the quarters I noted above, there’s a better chance that the three quarters are indicative of the play we’ll see tonight rather than the one anomaly that saw 62 points. The Clippers blew the lead in Game one, expect them to tighten up on defense today.
All factors considered, I’m taking the Under here.

My play:

LAC/Den Un 219

Recap: 1-0
Record: 11-10
Review: Banked a winner with Min/LAL Under with my last pick, covering the juice for the 10 in my 11-10 record.
Dug a hole, then made my way out of it.
NEXT!

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