Battling the Books | July 14th

Depending on DeWanna

Not to sound too obvious, but one way to keep your balance on the plus side of the ledger is to avoid long losing streaks.
In my time here at PredictEm the most I’ve lost is two games in a row.
I bring this up because I lost my last two picks.
If I lose today I will very likely shut my play down for the month. There are only two days left with WNBA games before they take off for the All-Star/Olympics break anyway, so I’m not missing much.

I’m at 8-6. If I lose, I’ll be at 8-7. And I practice what I preach – I’ve mentioned a couple of times that if you’re at the end of the week or month or whatever time frame/window you’re working in and have a small profit, shut down your play and lock up the profit. Always finish with a profit whenever you can, ANY profit.

If I win today I might make a play on Tuesday or Wednesday, depending on what I see. If not, I’ll be back with more WNBA after the break.

Between now and then, I may have a pick on a NASCAR matchup. And I’ll definitely be posting at least one more NFL regular season win bet. Or maybe a pick from the college ranks.
And I’ll also have an article about different ways to help you choose a team to play for a Regular Season Win Total bet.

Recap: 0-1
Record: 8-6

Review: I am the bug that got zapped.
I am the lab rat who’s too stupid to figure out which lever gets me the food pellet and, which gives me a shock. ONCE AGAIN, I went against my superstition of not jumping on a play that I stayed off of the night before, and it won.
And ONCE AGAIN I lost.

Now I’m in one of those “Damned if I do, damned if I don’t,” “screwed either way” spots.
The next time I’m in this position, I can’t play ON the play I stayed off the night before because I keep losing when I do.
And I can’t fade it and go the other way cuz you know if I do I’ll lose that decision too.

I’m probably overthinking it, but that’s how sports betting stupid superstitions work.

Today’s play

Note – all of the above was written Saturday night. Sunday morning I just did a proofread/edit and realized something. I’m in a bit of a conundrum here. I play to grind out a profit and I shut down if I’m in the black with just a day or two left. So as stated above if I lose today I will most likely shut down until the WNBA schedule starts again in August.
BUT . . . I’m also here to give picks, reasonings and analysis. Shutting down is the opposite of that.

So I’m kind of stuck in the middle here on what to do. Normally I would shut down and lock up a profit, but I’m not just playing for myself these days I’m also playing to try and help other bettors with handicapping strategies and picks that hopefully win. If this was football season I would DEFINITELY shut down, because I have a lot of money riding on those games, they’re investment size bets.
But my WNBA play is just TV/action-size wagers to have some fun and see if I can outsmart the books and beat them at their own game. So I won’t commit to shutting down if I lose today. I’ll play it by ear and see if I have any strong plays for Tuesday and Wednesday’s card, the last days before the All-Star Olympic break. I’ll be handicapping those days anyhow even if I wasn’t going to play just keep my numbers up to date so if I have something strong who knows, maybe I’ll play it.

Today, one of my methods for picking Wrong Favorites says the Indiana Fever should be favored on the road against the Minnesota Lynx.
Overall this play is 8-13, a 62% Fade.
Rd teams in this spot are 6-8, a 57% Fade.

Indiana has appeared in this spot three times and are 1-2 overall, 1-1 on the Rd.
Minnesota has appeared in this spot six times and are 5-1 overall, 2-1 at Hm.

This is their first meeting this year, so we have no recent H2H stats to factor in.

The Fever are 4-9 on the Rd and 6-7 ATS.
The Lynx are 10-2 at Hm, 7-5 ATS.
Indiana has been on a roll lately, going 7-3 ATS in their last 11 games.
Minnesota’s been mediocre at 5-5 ATS.

Minnesota’s playing with a plus side point differential of +6.7, while Indiana’s point differential is -6.0.
That’s a 12.7 swing in Minnesota’s favor, and hopefully the difference I’ll see in today’s final score.

Also laying a little juice today on DeWanna Bonner to hit Ov 1′ three-pointers. The number is just a little bit under her season average of 1.8 per game but she’s surpassed it in three of her last four, averaging 6.5 attempts per game.
If she gets at least six attempts today, her 32% season average says she’ll make two of them. But what I really like about this prop today is in their earlier meeting this month she went 1-8 from the 3-point line vs Phoenix. And that was the only game in the last four she didn’t get at least two three-pointers.
She made two against them in their only other meeting this year, and I expect a bounce-back performance from her dismal 1-8 back on July 1st.

Min -5′
Bonner Ov 1′ three-pointers, -150.