Battling The Books | Aug 3rd

Wrestling in the Mud with Wilbur

We enter week nine of the CFL season and my third week of betting on it. I’m starting to build up some stats to use, and I have a pick that qualifies on Saturday when the Edmonton Elks visit the Saskatchewan Roughriders.

This play is from one of my three WF (Wrong Fav) systems. For clarification and record keeping I’m going to refer to these as WF1, WF2 and WF3.

My numbers for WF1 say Saskatchewan is the Wrong Fav.
The play has an overall record of 6-1 ATS.
Road teams, like Edmonton this week, are 3-1.

Sounds pretty good, right?

But then there’s this – Edmonton is 0-3 in their last three games.
It gets worse.
Edmonton is 0-the entire season.
They’ve played seven games.
They’ve lost seven games.

One of those losses was to Saturday’s opponent, Saskatchewan.
The Elks lost by eight points. At home.
Now they’re on the road and only getting +5′.

Let’s look at the Elks schedule and apply +5′ to every game to see if there’s anything to give me hope in this contest.

Starting with their season opener, I see losses by 8 points, 3 points, 3 points, 3 points, 3 points, and 6 points in their first six games.
Four of the losses would have won at +5′.

There’s some hope to be found there.
Maybe they haven’t quit on the season?
But then I look at their last game, a 16 point loss to Hamilton, a Tiger-Cat team that had only ONE win coming into the game.
And that was at home in Edmonton!
Now they have to play on the road and I’m only getting 5′?
Yes, this plays ugly, this play is dirty. It’s definitely one of those “Hold your nose and hope for the best” plays.

Wait, there’s this – when you’re 0-7 and playing at home you’re going to get booed by the angry hometown fans. This is both depressing and distracting for a team. Going on the road can be a relief from that, leading to a better, more focused performance.
(Oh yeah, I’m definitely s-t-r-e-t-c-h-i-n-g here to try and find a reason to support this bet.)

Saskatchewan is sitting at 5-2, SU and ATS.
And they’re 3-0 ATS at home.
The three wins were by 16 points, 7 points, and 10 points, an average of 11 PPG, every one of them more than the +5′ I’m getting.
I have to stop digging deeper into this one. The more I look, the uglier my bet gets.

Point differential, PF/PA, has Saskatchewan at +25, Edmonton is at -42. That’s a whopping 76 point difference favoring Saskatchewan.
What did I just say? STOP looking at stats!

The Elks lost last week, at home, by 16 points, to a one-win team.
Now they’re going on the road to play a 5-2 team, and they’re supposed to stay within 5′?
And the already too short line of +5′ is now dropping, on a winless team, on the road???
EVERYTHING points to taking Saskatchewan in this one.
So why am I not taking Saskatchewan?
Because everything points to Saskatchewan.
From last week’s CFL post:
“In summary, yeah, I’ve got nothing to support my wager on Winnipeg. The play is a pig.
In fact, Toronto looks like the right play, laying a short price at home. But here’s the thing of it – EVERY single bet a player (me, you, everyone) makes is on the team that we like, the team that we think looks good. Do we win every game we bet? No. Do we win most of the games we bet? For the overwhelming majority of people, the answer is no.”

Winnipeg covered that game for me.
I bet on a pig and it turned out to be Wilbur. (Somebody will get that reference, yes?)

I’m pushing my luck trying to score with two sows in a row. This one may end up in the slaughterhouse. But . . . I’m having fun.
And that’s what life is all about.

Our sponsor Mybookie still has this game at Edmonton +5′ but the number is dropping across the board and +5/+5′ will be gone by the time anyone reads this and decides they want to ride with me. For grading here I’ll use +4, available at sponsor Xbet and other houses.

Edmonton +4

Recap: 1-0
Record: CFL 2-2

Review:

Last time in, I bet on Ottawa +2′.
Here’s how they rewarded my faith in them:

A fumble lost in the first half, in field goal range, taking at least three points off the board.

A SECOND fumble lost in the first half, in field goal range, taking at least three points off the board.

A third-quarter missed field goal.

A pick-6 in the fourth quarter when the game was tied, putting me down seven points.

A THIRD fumble lost, in the middle of the fourth quarter, when I was down 7 points.

And then, with the game tied 13-13, a horrible decision by the head coach to go for it on 3rd and 1, in chip shot field goal range, with a minute left in the game, resulting in a turnover on downs.

And then . . . a SECOND missed field goal, on the opening possession in OT.

99% of the time, these are NOT stats from a bet that won. Fortunately, I was in the 1%, and I squeezed out a win by the hook.

After Winnipeg missed the field goal in overtime I thought for sure Toronto would kick a field goal and the final score would be 16 -13, with me getting cooked by the hook.
But when I looked up at the screen it said the score was Winnipeg 14-13!
I got saved by one of those crazy Canadian rules where you can score one point. (I think it was because Toronto never returned the missed field goal and let it fall in the end zone? Hell if I know, but if I’m going to keep betting on this stuff I should at least take a minute to look it up and know the damn rules.)

Final score 16-14.
I got the W and my record is now 2-2.
It was an important win for me because it got me back to .500, so I didn’t end the month with a losing record.
I finished July 10-10 (-$130) for the WNBA and 2-2 (-$20) for CFL.
Round two (July) goes to the books, who beat me for some juice.

June: 16-13, +$170
July: 12-12 -150

In my Battle with the Book, we’re tied on the judges scorecards at one round apiece.
But I had fun betting/watching 53 games, and my first goal has been met – my bankroll is intact. And I’m hitting my second goal – finish with a profit, ANY profit.

I’m up enough money to buy a pizza if it was four or five years ago.
I got one last week, regular size eight slices, sausage pepperoni, and onions. THIRTY BUCKS! And I was in California, so of course it sucked; cardboard crust, bland sauce, and tasteless toppings.
But I digress.
With half a season’s worth of WNBA stats in my pocket to use for handicapping the second half, I’m in position to build on that almost-can-buy-a-pizza profit in round three, August, IF I can avoid taking any losses on the crapshoot of the NFL preseason.