Battling the Books | July 19th

With the WNBA on a one month hiatus I need to find a new sport to bet on and watch.
Hello, CFL.

I caught a game Sunday night.
Ottawa’s up by 7, about 20 seconds away from victory, when they commit a pass interference penalty in the end zone. Edmonton has the ball on the one yard line, with a very high probability of tying the score.

Ottawa’s head coach throws the red flag to challenge the penalty and the announcers applaud him. “Coach is right, he figures there’s no sense taking the challenge flag into the locker room.”

This contest was headed for OT and now Ottawa would not have a challenge flag if they needed it in a crucial situation. Their coach wasted the flag on a play that was never going to be overturned because the foul was blatant.
It was bad coaching.
And bad analysis from the booth.

(Note to CFL fans – if CFL rules dictate that teams get a new challenge flag in OT, don’t send nasty letters to me or my editor, calling me an idiot. Call me lazy, because I just don’t care enough to google it.)

As it turns out, the game never made it to OT.
Edmonton did score a touchdown and did make the extra point to tie the game. But then, with just eight seconds left on the game clock, the Eskimo’s kicker screwed the pooch.

(Hold on, I better google that one. Correction the “Elks” kicker. But come on, you got to admit, the “Edmonton Eskimos” sounds right.)

On the ensuing kickoff, the kicker hooked the ball out of bounds, guaranteeing him a sh*t ton of “You had ONE job!” condemnations on Twitter/X.
The bad kick gave Ottawa the ball at midfield.

One pass completion later, the REDBLACKS are in FG range. They kick the field goal and it’s apparent to me why Edmonton had lost their three previous three games by three points. And now, four.

Had I been aware of the WNBA’s month-long Olympic break I would have been tracking and charting the CFL since week one. As it is, I have no data to go on so I’ll be flying blind for the next couple weeks.
Because I don’t know the sport very well (despite having been fortunate enough to live in beautiful, Vancouver, BC for two years) all CFL bets are action-size TV bets.

Here are the options I’m looking at:

Bet AGAINST Edmonton.
Reason?
Did you start this post at the halfway mark? SEE ABOVE.

Bet AGAINST Saskatchewan.
Reason?
Shea Patterson, who I’ve watched screw up offenses since his North Carolina days.

On Friday July 19th, Edmonton and Ottawa are playing the second game of a back to back series.
The Red Blacks opened -2′ at home and are now at -1 with a total of 52′.

Also on Friday, Saskatchewan’s at home facing Winnipeg who is a -1′ point favorite (now -3′), total 50′.

Before I start doing some stat work I need to take a look at what REALLY matters – which game is televised in the US market?
(If I can’t watch why the hell would I bet on it?)

I check the TV guide for CBS Sports, the network that shows the games down here in the lower 48, and . . . NEITHER game is televised??!!
WTF?
Bastards!
And even worse – they’re televising an Arena Football game instead.
Even I don’t bet on that crap.
(The books don’t have lines on Arena, do they?)

My only option to monitor my money on the Friday night game is to watch the low-grade graphics on an Internet site like TSN or ESPN, waiting for the football icon to move back and forth on the little green playing field, while waiting for play by play updates at the top of the screen.

Watching graphics so rudimentary that they’re only slightly more advanced than the original Pong is ridiculous and desperate.
And it’s what I’ll be doing on Friday.

Edmonton is in last place, 0-5.
Do I think they’ll make the necessary adjustments, using experience gained from last week’s game against Ottawa, and get a different result this time?
No, I do not.
After losing four straight by three points do I think they are snake bit?
Yes, I do.
Laying -1 with Ottawa looks like a bargain to me.
But I’m not going to do it.
There’s something desirable about rooting for the underdog, and the Elks are the underdog (underelk?) And the opening number has dropped from -2′ to -1 so apparently a lot of people are going to be rooting for them.

Yes, it’s wrong to bet with your feelings, but it’s not like I’m making a major investment here.
And I want to root for the poor bastards.

Last week’s Ott/Edm total was 50′.
They combined for 72.
There were 30 points scored in the second quarter alone, more than half the total. You know that’s not going to happen again.
But when you look at the other three quarters, they averaged 14 points per (15, 13, 14.) Extended out over a full game that 14 comes out to a total of 56. Based on the high scoring first meeting the books have added just two points to this week’s total. Doesn’t seem like enough.

Earlier this week Edmonton fired head coach, Chris Jones (a combined record of 8-28 in his first two seasons, plus an 0-5 start this season will do that to you.)

The new head coach is the former offensive coordinator Jarius Jackson. If I’m betting the Over on a game that has a new head coach I’d rather it be an offensive coordinator taking over than a defensive coordinator.

I see one other time when teams played each other back to back this year. The Rough Riders and Tiger-Cats scored 63 in their first game, 56 in the next. Both meetings went over. Both meetings were won by the Rough Riders.

Recap: 2-1
Record: 10-10 (-120)

Review:

Banked a unit when Atl/Min sailed over by 13 points.
Took an L with the Caitlin’s -3′ as they lost SU by 8, allowing last place Dallas to score 101 points. Gotta shore up that defense in the second half of the season ladies, if you want a playoff spot.
Banked a W with Odyssey Sims Ov 14′.
She bagged 17 at half time, before finishing with 24. I continue to see things clearly when trying to spot bad numbers on props.
7-3 now.

The 2-1 day let me pull even at 10-10 for July.

Today’s plays:

Ottawa -1 (Yes, Ottawa. I know what I said above, but you can’t bet with your heart! My money is going on the team I think will win. The line has already dropped a point and a half and who knows, it might be pick ’em by game time because everyone’s buying into the “New Coach Bump.” But what Edmonton needs is the New Defense Bump, because Ottawa out gunned them by over 200 yards in the air last week. I don’t see how a new head coach/former offensive coordinator can help the Elks stop QB Brown and WR’s Pimpleton, Rhymes, and Hardy this week, either.)

Edm/Ott Ov 52.5

Open bets:
Oklahoma -40′ (regular size wager)
Cincinnati Reg Season Wins Un 10′, +108 (TV action- size bet)