Battling the Books: NBA Play | April 9
Boston at Orlando NBA Prediction
Wednesday, April 9th at 7 pm, EST
Tonight we catch Boston AND Orlando both in the second game of a B2B (playing on back-to-back nights) and I bought a play on the total.
The game opened yesterday at 216.
This morning it was at 212.
Write now, as I right this (just messing with my editor there) it’s at 206.
And I’m going opposite the line movement, taking the Over.
Yes, Orlando does play at the slowest pace in the league but that doesn’t justify a total of 206 being set on this matchup, in this situation.
Let’s look at some basic stats.
Boston has gone Over tonight’s number in five of their last five games.
Want more?
They’ve gone Over tonight’s number in 10 of their last 10 games.
In B2B’s?
They’ve gone Over tonight’s 206 in 9 of 11 games.\
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Whenever I look at B2B numbers, I always check the subcategory of their Hm/Rd sequence because teams perform differently in back-to-back games at home as opposed to back-back games that involve travel.
Tonight, Boston’s sequence is A/A (Away/Away), they played on the Rd at New York last night and they’re on the Rd at Orlando tonight.
This is the fifth time Boston has played back-to-back nights on the road this season.
Here are the total points scored in those games:
216, 195, 213, 208, 228.
Four of five in B2B A/A went Over 206.
The B2B numbers aren’t as favorable when we come to Orlando’s 12 games playing B2B. Though seven of the 12 have gone Over 206, the slight concern is that when they were playing in tonight’s sequence of H/H (B2B games, both at home) the scores were 184, 193, 215, only one going Over tonight’s total.
How about H2H (Head to Head)?
These two have met twice this season.
Total scores were 215 and 212, both Over tonight’s number.
Last year? 209, 239, 217, all of them Over 206.
Most of the standard stats favor my Over tonight. But dipping into my own bag of tricks, I have this: one of my methodologies for choosing totals is 6-2 on Overs.
Yes, small data sample based on new qualifying parameters I set about a week ago as I fine tune things heading into the postseason, but as always I’m looking to identify a streak and get on it early before it starts to even out.
Al Horford is likely to be out, but the Celtics have the deepest bench in the league, so even if they do rest starters or play them for fewer minutes than normal, I have no concerns there.
As for any concerns that both teams might take it easy tonight, looking to keep players healthy in these last few games as they get ready for the postseason, here are some numbers from last season.
Boston’s last five games (in sequence of when they were played, first to last)
231, 195, 227, 229, 255
Orlando’s last five games:
211, 224, 216, 238, 202.
You see either team taking it easy on putting up points in those games?
Neither do I.
When to Buy Recommendation:
With an opener of 216 and a current number 10 points below that, I’m not willing to wait and see if it goes any lower; a buyback from bettors looking for a middle would not be unexpected in this one.
My Play:
Boston/Orlando Ov 206
Recap: 1-0
Record: 8-9
Review: Got a much-needed winner in my last play, using New York -8′ against the slumping Suns.
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