Battling the Books | July 27

Winnipeg – Bombers or Bacon?

Today, I have a play on the Winnipeg Blue Bombers on the road, taking on the Toronto Argonauts.
How is my CFL season going?
It depends on how you look at it.

The glass is half empty POV:
“My CFL season has been a disaster; I’ve lost twice as many games as I’ve won!”

The glass is half full POV:
“My CFL record is 1-2.”

My CFL play is not quite as calamitous as the glass half empty POV would imply, my bankroll has not been decimated. I’m only one game under .500.
Normally, this is easily recoverable, but it’s slightly more difficult in my current situation.
As the CFL goes into week eight, I only have data from week seven to tell me which of my handicapping formulas are working (and can be used to play ON) and which aren’t (and can be used to play AGAINST.)

I didn’t foresee the WNBA missing almost an entire month for the All-Star game and Olympics.
I didn’t anticipate turning to the CFL for some action and fun, so I didn’t handicap it.
This puts me at a bit of a disadvantage.
Only one of the formulas I use allows me to go back over previous weeks and recreate what the record on it would be, the others are lost to time due to numbers and stats changing.

It’s a LOT of work to go back over six weeks of games, a lot of number crunching, and very time-consuming. But I did it because just like anything else in life – if you’re going to succeed you have to put the time in and work hard.

I put in the time, I did the work and hopefully I’ll be rewarded for it. With tomorrow’s pick.
But for today, I’m going to try to win a beauty contest with a pig for an entry.
Winnipeg +2′ is based on a play that I started charting last week when it went 1-0. Yeah, I know, not a lot of data, but that’s my fault, as I explained. It also qualifies under a subsystem that’s also 1-0.

Digging deeper into the game…

Winnipeg’s off to a lousy start at 2-5 SU, but Toronto is not much better at 3-3.

The ATS numbers are even uglier, with the Blue Bombers at 1-6 and the Argonauts at 2-4.

None of those numbers bring me any confidence on my Winnipeg bet.
Maybe a look at home/road will help?

Winnipeg’s both wins came at home, so I’m betting on a team that’s winless on the road.
And I’m only getting +2′.
No help there.
In their three road games, the Blue Bombers lost to Ottawa by 4 points, Calgary by 3, and Saskatchewan by 10. All three losses came by more points than I’m getting today, so no help there either.

Maybe I can find some salvation looking at Toronto’s play at home?
Their home record is 2-1, an 8 point win over BC, a 3 point win over Edmonton, and a 10 point loss to Montreal. Nothing there to support my Blue Bomber bet.

Can I find some support in point differentials?
Toronto is -10 (PF 178, PA 168.)
Winnipeg is -21 (PF 149, PA 170.)
More ugliness for my wager.

In most games, you can find stats and trends to favor whichever side you pick. But not this one, other than one of my handicapping methods, with an unimpressive record of only 1-0.
In summary, yeah – I’ve got nothing to support my wager on Winnipeg. The play is a pig.
In fact, Toronto looks like the right play, laying a short price at home.
But here’s the thing of it – EVERY single bet a player (me, you, everyone) makes is on the team that we like, the team we think looks good.
Do we win every game we bet? No.
Do we win most of the games we bet?
For the overwhelming majority of people, the answer is “no.”
That being the case, Spock would say, “Logic dictates that it is to a bettor’s advantage to NOT bet on the team that you like every time.”
And that’s where I am with this play.
(As if the numbers aren’t troubling enough on this bet, I’m quoting Star Trek, never a good sign in any aspect of life, gambling-related or in general.)

The line on this game opened at Toronto -1/-1′.
It’s up to -2′ this morning, with extra juice on the favorite. Since the line is moving in the direction I need I’ll wait to buy it, hoping to get plus three by kickoff.
If it doesn’t rise, I’ll grab it at +2′.

Winnipeg +? (wait to buy it)

Recap: 0-1 (missed with Toronto last Sunday.)

July record: WNBA 10-10, -130; CFL 1-2

Open bets:

Oklahoma -40′ (now up to -42′)

Cin Bengals Reg Season Wins Un 10′ +108

USC Un 7′ (Yes, I bought another Season Wins Total. Watch for the write-up/analysis coming next week.)