Battling ther Books: UFL Week 5 Play

UFL Prediction:

Houston Roughnecks at San Antonio Brahmas
When: Sunday, April 27 at 3 pm, EST; ESPN
Current line: SA -3’Before I get into a breakdown of Sunday’s UFL play, here are some basic numbers from the first four weeks.

Standard stats:

Favs are now 5-11, Dogs 11-5

After going 4-0 last week, Overs have now caught up with Unders at 8-8.

Noteworthy stats from my polls of various sports writers/handicappers:

Favorites with four or more picks than the Dog are 2-6 ATS.
Unders with four or more picks than the Over are 6-2.

At the time I’m writing this, most of the touts I poll haven’t got their picks in for this weekend yet.
Be sure to check out the PredictEm forum Saturday and Sunday. I’ll post the poll numbers as they come in.
(For an explanation of my polls, read my first article of the UFL season, dated March 29th.)

One of the factors that separates winning bettors from losers is this – winners maintain a database or log book where they make notes on what works for them; systems, trends, etc.
For example, the WNBA 2025 season starts in just three weeks. Part of my preseason prep work consists of going to my log book/database from last year and looking for notes to use in the upcoming season.
Here’s a sample of one of my notes:

If you’re going to play an Under in a WNBA game, make sure to check that neither team played the night before. In 2024, game two of B2B’s (Back to Back games, where one of the teams played the night before) the Over is 18-7, 72%.

I’ll use this info to look for possible plays on an Over (games with teams in the B2B spot) and/or possibly eliminating plays on an Under.

For the UFL, make a note of this in your log book for next season (if there IS a next season):

“Avoid Overs in week one and two.
In the inaugural UFL season, only one of eight games went Over.
This season, year two, only two of eight games went Over.”

You don’t have to be Einstein to figure out why.
In most sports, defenses often have the early edge because offenses take time to gel and get their timing together, especially between QB’s and receivers.
Even more so in the UFL where because of financial constraints they have limited practices before opening day.

But don’t rely on your memory. Keep a database of what works and what doesn’t, and it will increase your profits.And now, back to my cap on Sunday’s game.

NOTE: Increase your winning percentage INSTANTLY by betting on games at -105 instead of -110! It’s FREE! Do yourself a favor and learn about reduced juice sports betting!

In Houston and San Antonio we have two teams suffering from severe suckage.
The puzzle for handicappers to solve is which one sucks more.

They have identical records at 1-3.Only 0-4 Memphis prevents Houston and San Antonio from sharing the title of Worst in the League.

Houston has a Rd record of 1-1.
Their win came against Memphis.
San Antonio’s Hm record is 0-0.
The Brahmas must have pissed off someone in the league office because going into Week 5, they have yet to play a game at home (Not that home field has much of an advantage in the UFL. Average attendance is about 50 people, mostly family members and friends. Okay, 50 is an exaggeration but sadly, not by much.)

The Brahmas are coming off their first win of the season and are in a prime position to build a little momentum with the Roughnecks coming to town. If you’re the worst defense in the league, like San Antonio (surrendering 25 PPG), there’s no one you’d rather see coming into your home stadium than the worst offense in the league, Houston (scoring just 12 PPG.)

Yes, the Brahmas are just 1-3, but they faced the four toughest teams in the league:
first place in the XFL division Arlington (3 – 1),
the two teams tied for first place in the USFL division DC and Michigan (3-1), and second place St Louis (2-2.) Houston is the weakest team they will have faced this season. I expect them to take advantage of the situation and so that’s where my money is going on Sunday.
But there is this:
I’ve bet AGAINST Houston three times.
I am 0-3 on those bets.
I’m wondering which axiom this week’s pick will fall under:

“If it first you don’t succeed, try, try, again.”

Or…

“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.”
Call me crazy, but. . .

My play:

SA (wait to buy this; not much difference between laying 3′ and 4, maybe the hook will come off. As always, I’ll post the number I get in the forum section.) (edited)

Recap: UFL: 0-1
Record: UFL: 2-2
Review: Last play was Birmingham -7′.
They won by 7.
Stallions couldn’t cover against a Houston team that was down to their third-string quarterback.
This is not the Birmingham team we’re used to.

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