Battling ther Books: NASCAR Plays
Talladega Betting Predictions
Matchup:
William Byron vs Bubba Wallace
When: Sunday April 27th, at 3 pm, EST
Verifying the Veracity of Veronica Vroom
Look, I get it.
Many of you sports bettors don’t like NASCAR.
You think, “Hey, it’s hard enough to pick a winner with a 50/50 chance between two teams, how the hell am I supposed to pick the winner with ONE driver out of 40 guys??!!”
But you have to ask yourself – are you betting because you like or don’t like certain sports to bet on or is your true goal to build a bankroll?
Because if your goal is to build a bankroll and you’re NOT reading PredictEm’s Veronica Vroom’s weekly NASCAR articles then you’re really missing out!
Talk about accuracy?
Talk about veracity?
She nailed the winner AGAIN in the last race, at Bristol, recommending bettors ride along with Kyle Larson.
Her picks are making money for her followers week after week.
I don’t like betting on one guy over 35-40 others either. But I don’t have to, and neither do you.
Head to Head matchups are the perfect way to reduce those odds and enjoy watching and betting on a race.
What I usually do is take Veronica’s choice for the winner and try find a matchup to use him in. Wagering this way, instead of having to beat 40 other guys, I only have to beat one.
I don’t do deep dives into NASCAR like when I’m handicapping other sports. My ‘capping here is cursory at best, amateurish at worst. Because of this my NASCAR bets are small money for some fun and action – because I like watching the races (and yes, rooting for crashes.)
I have some basic knowledge culled from my years running the sports book (the guys I worked with were huge NASCAR fans.) And I read up a little bit on the race each week, making notes on the track and the driver’s past performances there.
And I rely on s and point me in the right direction.
Last race I didn’t like any of Larson’s matchups at Bristol so I went with her third choice, Ty Gibbs, and used him in a matchup against Chase Briscoe.
Briscoe finished 4th.
Had I known that before the race I would have never bet the matchup.
But Gibbs finished third!
And I banked another winner.
Compliments of Ms. Vroom.
I think the only time I didn’t make money using her picks this year is when I didn’t bet the race!
Do yourself a big favor and check her out.
T
his week the circuit takes us to Talladega.
VV’s top three choices are William Byron (current odds at 12-1), Brad Keselowski (10-1), and Ricky Stenhouse (28-1.)
Playing NASCAR matchups is always a risk due to accidents that could take your driver out, especially at a place like Talladega, known for the high possibility of what’s referred to as The Big One – crashes that could wipe out a large percentage of the entire field.
In the 2012 Fall race at Talladega, Tony Stewart was the cause of a multi-car mashup that involved 25 cars. And last year 28 cars were involved in a late race wreck.
That’s why I try to avoid paying high prices on driver matchups. No matter how good your car is, no matter how good your driver is, it doesn’t matter – if somebody else screws up you can be taken out of the race and find your driver heading back to the garage before the race is over with an early finish to his day. And yours.
This week I’m going with . . .
Byron over Wallace
What I like about this pick:
1) Let’s start with the obvious – Byron is VV’s choice to win.
2) Wallace drives a Toyota, and my notes say avoid Toyotas at this track.
3) I like the price. Byron is actually the Dog in this one at -110 to Wallace’s -120 (at our sponsor Bovada)
4) I’m 1-0 using Byron in a matchup, posted in an article here dated March 9th.
And I like to stick with what works (worked.)
I’m also looking for one prop if I can get the right numbers. I love playing the Ov/Un caution flags prop but the odds aren’t out yet.
Three times races at Talladega have seen zero cautions, 1997, 2001, and 2002.
The most caution flags recorded was 11 in 2004.
Be sure to check the PredictEm forum tomorrow.
If I get the number of flags I want and a good price on it I’ll post a play.
NASCAR record: 3-1
(Picks from April 6th are counted in the forum NASCAR record because I didn’t get my article published in time for anyone to see and get bets in. So I posted them in the forum.)