Battling the Books | WNBA Total Pick

Beware Reversion Toward the Mean

There are two Sunday games that fit a play I’ve used twice in my PredictEm column.
It has a record of 13-3.
That’s 81% with a solid data sample of 16 games.

This is the same situational spot I gave out for Friday night, Phoenix at Indiana: Play the Over in WNBA games that have a team who played the previous night.
That game sailed over by 14 points.

It’s the first time this season two games qualify on the same day.
First up, Los Angeles at Las Vegas.
Later in the day, Chicago at Phoenix.

On Saturday, I double-checked my numbers on the play, and 13-3 on Overs is correct.
And while I was in handicapping mode I decided to find out the ATS record of the teams playing the second night in a row.
I thought I might find a losing record that would have value as a Fade, but they’re actually ahead 9-7.

At first glance, I like the Ov in the early game, LA/LV, because it fits a rare subset: When BOTH teams played the day before the Over is 2-0. Both LA and LV played yesterday.

But as usual, I dig deeper. And I found out one of those two wins was the same matchup as today, Los Angeles at Las Vegas.
And it needed OT to go Over the number.
So, I’m not liking it as much now.

The problem with an 81% trend is it’s prime time for reversion toward the mean to begin.
There’s a much better chance for an 81% trend to go down then to climb higher.
So, while I used both plays for picks in the PredictEm forum section, I’ll look to another game for today’s pick.

Just as I have three handicapping methods for finding Wrong Favorites, I use the same three for totals.
My best one says the Con/Atl game today goes Over 154. It has a record of 4-0.
And when my top two systems agree, meaning both say a game goes Over, the subset record is 3-0.

Historically, 154 is not a good number for an Ov in this matchup. In 2024, all three games between these two have stayed under today’s line. But in their first game back since the All-Star break, Connecticut, the number one defense in the league, gave up 99 points to last place Dallas, 17 points over the Wing’s PPG average. And they scored 109 points themselves.

No, the Sun will not give up 99 points to the Dream today, and they won’t score 109. But if I can get that kind of pace in today’s game I can get to 154.

I’m confident I can get 82 out of Connecticut, their average PPG on the road. And if Atlanta can get me their season average of 75 PPG (the Sun give up an average of 74 PPG on the road) I should be able to get to 154.
And until this 4-0 Over spot from my ‘capping methods loses, I’m going to ride it.

Our sponsor Xbets has this number at 154 right now, a hook better than most houses. If you don’t have an account at Xbet, GET ONE! Football season is about to begin; you HAVE to have multiple houses to shop at if you are going to Beat the Books!
If you can’t get 154, wait; you’ll be able to get it by tip-off. The number has been dropping all morning from the opening 155′.

Today’s play:

Con/Atl Ov 154

Update on my NFL Regular Season total, NYG Un 6′.
In his first preseason action, Daniel Jones threw two interceptions, including a pick 6.
His QB rating was 44.5.
In other words, he’s in mid-season form.

I need coach Drabol to keep Jones on the bench in the final preseason game next week. Not just because I don’t want him to get hurt but I’m concerned that if he plays poorly again the Giants may give the starting job to second stringer Drew Lock. Or third stringer Tommy DeVito (yes, Jones is THAT bad.)

Recap: 4-0
Record (Aug): 7-1
NFL 3-0, CFL 1-1, WNBA 3-0

Review:
Banked three units on Friday with Phx/Ind Ov, Ind-3, and Con -5′. The Connecticut game was a play from one of my Wrong Favorite systems, WF1.
The record on it is now 2-6, good Fade fodder.

The Phoenix/Indy total was the puzzle pick from Thursday.

Clue one:
“Visit me one week after Independence Day.”
(In other words, check out my column from July 11th.)

Clue number two:
“Follow my advice regarding the home of Mrs O’Leary’s cow (Chicago) and Peter Lugers.” (Brooklyn, New York.)
The featured pick in that column was the Over in Chicago/New York because they were in the B2B situation.

Clue number three:
“Check Thursdays WNBA schedule then check Friday schedule.”
If you looked at both schedules, you would see that Phoenix was in the B2B spot.

You didn’t have to be Sherlock Holmes to figure that one out.

Saturday, I got a W with Buffalo, but it wasn’t due to my handicapping. I made a mistake; I had the wrong line, +5′, on the game (I found out when I went to make my bet after submitting my article. We edited it to add the correct number, Buffalo +1′.)
Thought I was screwed when McDermott changed his mind after saying Josh Allen would play but then kept him on the sidelines.
That left me stuck with Trubisky yet somehow I survived. Betting against Russell Wilson was a good call. He got sacked three times and only had one first down in his first three possessions.
Passing stats in the first quarter?
Minus five yards.

Regardless of who gets the starting job, Wilson or Trubisky, Pittsburgh has a quarterback problem.
Hmm, I think I’ll take a look at their Regular Season Wins Total and their schedule.
Maybe I can add one more bet before Week 1?

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