Battling the Books | WNBA Play Sept 3
Betting on one of the Dregs
Tonight, I have a side and total using two of the worst teams in the league, the Washington Mystics and the Dallas Wings.
I’ll post my preferred play here in the homepage column and the other one will go as a pick in the forum section.
Despite having identical records where the win total is still stuck in single digits (an abysmal 9-23) both of these teams have an outside shot of making the 8th and final slot in the playoffs, held right now by Chicago at 11-21.
Although one of my mantras throughout the season has been, “Do NOT play ON Dallas,” I’m going to ride with my numbers and take a shot with them tonight.
WF2 (Wrong Fav) says Washington should be the favorite tonight and has an overall record of 7-11, a 61% Fade.
More importantly it fits my favorite spot: “When WF1 says the team that is the actual favorite will win by more than five points over the books number, WF2 has a record of 2-5, a 71% Fade.”
That is a direct quote from my article dated August 24, except for the updated record of 2-5. It was 2-4 on August 24 when I used it here at PredictEm for a play on Minnesota in the same spot Dallas is in tonight, when the Lynx beat the red-hot Indiana Fever by 10 points, laying 5.
Washington is going for the sweep tonight, having beaten Dallas twice this season by 12 points and 28 points. But those games were earlier in the season when Dallas was missing a few key players.
Recent form shows no edge for either team, both are 4-6 in their last 10.
Both teams have an outside shot of getting the last spot in the playoffs. It all depends on how they close out this season, and I give Dallas the edge.
Today’s pick:
Dal -5′I went 7-2 on WNBA picks in August.
And that’s the way it’s supposed to work, ideally – gather stats over the course of the first half of the season and use that data to be profitable in the second half.
There are only 16 days left in the WNBA regular season.
I’ll play selectively as I seek to reach my goal of finishing with a season with a profit. Hopefully, the stats that I built up over the course of the season will continue to pay off for just another two weeks.
Record (Sept) 0-0
August Accounting Final Numbers:
August is in the books at 15-3, 83%.
I hit my first goal – do no harm to my bankroll (don’t lose money.)
I hit my second goal – finish with a profit (ANY profit.)
And I hit my third goal, what I call the Holy Grail, 67%.
Actually I didn’t just hit my third goal, I obliterated it, finishing 16 points higher.
And I hit my fourth goal – have fun.
I had a hell of a lot of fun.
Now I need to post a reminder – a win percentage that high is unsustainable.
Reversion toward the mean is due to pay me a visit.
Proceed with caution if you’re considering tailing my next picks.
Here’s how the month broke down:
NFL 3-0
CFL 3-1
WNBA 7-2
College football 2-0
Picks given for four sports and a winning record in all four.
Here are my three months at PredictEm:
- June: 16-13
- July: 11-10*
- August: 15-3
- Total: 42-29, 59%.
* July was originally recorded as 10-10, but I left off the Hall of Fame game. The side was canceled due to lightning, but the Over was a winner.