Battling the Books – WNBA Championship Picks
WNBA Postseason Plays
“Give me Liberty or give me Death!”
Patrick Henry
“Give me the Liberty or give me . . . the Lynx?”
RBD
The WNBA season ends this week. There’s just one day left with games on the schedule.
I won’t play any of them.
Why not?
Because I practice what I preach.
A regular theme that I emphasize for anyone struggling to Beat their Book is ALWAYS lock up a profit whenever you can.
And that’s what I’m doing.
I’m currently sitting at 28-22, 56%.
For a $100 bettor playing standard odds of -110 to win 100 that’s a profit of $380 (I had a loss on a prop that I laid -150 but many of my bets were at odds of -105 to -108, so +$380 is accurate. If you’re still laying $110 to win $100 you need to expand the number of books you can bet at. IF YOU LIMIT THE NUMBER OF PLACES YOU CAN BET AT YOU LIMIT YOUR CHANCES OF WINNING!!!)
Fifty bets made and a 56% W rate.
I’ll take those numbers on ANY sport in ANY season, but especially in something like the WNBA, which I’ve never really handicapped before.
I’ve dabbled when I wanted a rooting interest on a TV game I was going to watch, but I never put in the work and time necessary to make a serious effort at beating the books.
I took on the WNBA this season because I wanted to offer something different to our readers here at PredictEm, and also because it was going to be an interesting year due to the phenomenon known as Caitlin Clark.
In my debut article here I began by offering my goals, the best advice I can give anyone trying to Beat the Books.
And at the end of the WNBA season I’ll post them again:
Goal Number One: Do Not Lose Money
Fact is, MOST bettors lose.
Estimates have it as high as 98%! So, as the physicians’ creed goes, “Primum non nocere” or “First, do no harm” – in this case, to my bankroll.
If I don’t play to win money, then why bet?
I didn’t say I don’t play to win, I said it’s not my first goal…
Goal Number Two: Finish the Season with a Profit
ANY profit.
Goal Number Three: The Grail, 67%
In any endeavor in life you should always have a goal that’s difficult to reach, one you have to work hard at to achieve. A win percentage of 67% is a lofty goal when you consider that 98% of bettors can’t hit 54%.
And of course there’s that other goal – HAVE FUN.
I took on the challenge, I hit my top goals, and I had a lot of fun. Hope you did, too.
And now we move on to the postseason. New challenge, new record.
Back to 0-0, back to the grind.
Eight teams make the playoffs but realistically only four of them have a chance. I’m going to lay some money down on my choices to emerge as champion, and possibly a series bet if I can get the right price.
Let’s do the easy work first and eliminate the bottom feeders.
Atlanta (14-25 with one game left to play) and Phoenix (19-20) have zero chance.
Two down, six to go.
Next up, the Indiana Caitlin’s (odds +1500.)
I wish they had a more realistic chance. Clark certainly did make it an exciting season and the league owes her a HUGE debt of gratitude for all the sellouts across the country and increased revenue from merchandising and commercial advertising sales. But everyone knows defense wins in the postseason and out of 12 teams in the league only one team has given up more PPG than Indiana, the Dallas Wings (9 wins, 30 losses.) Out of eight teams in the playoffs they have the worst PPG defense.
So how did the Fever make the playoffs with a defense that plays so poorly? Because they had the second best offense in the league, thanks to Clark. But that’s not going to get it done in the postseason.
They we’re hot, but the Fever has subsided.
Which brings us to the fifth place Seattle Storm (odds of +2500.)
A solid record at 24-15 as of this writing but they’re just 4-10 vs the top four contenders. In a money game on the second to last day of the season they had a chance to move up in the standings by beating the team that was one game ahead of them, Las Vegas. They lost that game. Just like they’re going to lose in the playoffs.
Thus, squelch the Storm.
Which brings us to the top four, the only four with a realistic chance of winning.
According to the oddsmakers, the Las Vegas Aces (odds +250) are the second choice to repeat and win this season’s championship trophy. According to me they’re not going to even make it to the championship series this season.
In the playoffs, you have to hold on to your home court advantage and while Las Vegas looks solid at 12-7 their opponents are better. Connecticut came in at 13-5, and Minnesota and New York, were both 16-3.
Plus, the defending champs haven’t fared so well against the other three top contenders.
Las Vegas is 4-6 vs the top three teams. The only team they have a winning record against is Connecticut, and they’re not going to see Connecticut because the Sun will be knocked out by the Liberty.
They WILL very likely see Minnesota, who they are 1-3 against, with all three losses coming by double digits. Las Vegas will get past Seattle in round one but I see them getting KO’d in round two vs. Minnesota.
The Aces will be cracked.
Next up, the Connecticut Sun (odds +1000.) They can defend home court, 13-5. They can win on the road, 14-6. But head to head against top contenders their weaknesses shows.
They have the best defense in the league and they do match up well with Minnesota, but they’re not going to see Minnesota. To do so they’d have to get past New York, who they’re 1-3 against this year.
To my way of handicapping, the Sun just don’t have the heart required to win it all, an opinion formed by remembering them folding in the fourth quarter of a couple big games this season.
Blot out the Sun.
And then there were two.
I see the championship series as being between the Minnesota Lynx (odds +300) and the New York Liberty (odds +140.)
But who comes out on top?
I’m leaning towards the New York Liberty but their loss to Minnesota in the Commissioner’s Cup game deserves much consideration.
The playoffs bring the opportunity for additional cash. They’re all about who’s going to step up when the money’s on the table. The Commissioner’s Cup game was worth $40,000 per player to the winner. And in it, the Lynx kicked Liberty butt.
In New York.
Head to head in the regular season Minnesota also had the edge, taking three of four games, more numbers in favor of the Lynx.
But if it was merely just a matter of reading the numbers everyone would win. Most people don’t win. So it’s intangibles that allow a team to finish on top of the mountain. Intangibles like heart and hunger.
There are four different components you need to win the championship.
The ability to hold on to home court advantage, the ability to win on the road, and heart and hunger.
I only see one team that has every one of those – the New York Liberty.
They have the overall best record.
They’re tied with Minnesota for the best home record.
And they have the best road record.
As to heart and hunger, it’s their 3-0 season sweep over Las Vegas that has me convinced this is the Liberty’s year. In last year’s championship series New York lost to Vegas. Watching those three games this season I saw a team with a chip on their shoulder, a team determined to prove they’re the best. I saw heart and hunger.
And I grade the hunger factor very highly in my handicapping.
There’s always a chance that the reigning champs from Las Vegas will step up their game in the playoffs and show their championship form. And the Lynx enter the playoffs as the hottest team in the league and have that 3-1 regular season edge over New York as a cause for concern, not to mention their win in the Commissioner’s Cup.
But New York has a much deeper bench and they have that look of destiny about them. And hunger.
And I rate hunger very highly . . .
I’ll have some plays for individual games during the postseason, but strategically, for the championship series, I’m looking to lock up a small profit. I’m putting one unit on both of my choices, NY at +140 and Minnesota at +300.
Eliminating the four lower tier teams leaves me with the top four. Connecticut has no heart, and last year’s champs, Las Vegas, seem to be lacking hunger. Placing a unit on both of the other two leaves me with what I see as a 50/50 chance among the only four teams capable of winning. And a strong opportunity for adding a little bit more to my bankroll.
(There’s also a chance that if I get the odds I want in one of the series I may go all in and bet my entire regular season winnings on a play.
Foolhardy? Yes. Risky? Of course.
But I’ve played conservatively and tight all season long and I might just go crazy in the postseason. Check PredictEm’s WNBA forum for updates.)
Championship Plays:
Minnesota +300
New York +140