Battling the Books | Week 2 CFB Play
Col/Neb Un (wait to buy it) Four weeks into the 2020 season I started using a handicapping method that pointed out games with a high percentage of going Under.
It was the best system I’ve ever come up with.
I didn’t play them all, but after seeing where the record was heading after a few weeks of charting it I jumped on and started playing them every week.
And I shared them on the internet.
That year the system went 28-4.
The first week wasn’t posted on the internet; 23-4 is the record of the plays that were shared on the web, dated and time stamped for non-believers.
With this article you’ll see a picture of the page from the last week of that season. On the top of the page in the middle you see the record going into that week’s games, 27-4.
On the right hand side you’ll see the only game that qualified for that week, Ore/USC.
The green 64 is what the books offered.
The purple 57 is where my number said the game would land.
The letters UN inside of a box designate it as an Under.
At the bottom of the picture you’ll see Un 1-0, followed by the updated season record. Un is now at 28-4 because the Oregon USC game landed on 55.
In the next year, 2021, the record was 34-21, 63%, making the combined two year record 62-25.
I thought I might have found the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.
But as I always remind bettors – what works one year doesn’t necessarily work the next year.
And here’s proof.
In 2022, the record was 34-32, 51%.
A $100 bettor would have lost $120 on the season. But still a nice profit from the three years combined.
Which brings us to last year.
Would it return to its winning ways or were 2020 and 2021 just a fluke?
2023: 21-17, 55%.
A $100 better netted $230, recouping the loss from 2022 and then some.
So the four years look like this:
2020: 28-4, 87%
2021: 34-21, 63%
2022: 34-32, 51%
2023: 21-17, 55%
And now, the REALLY BIG question – what’s going to happen in 2024?
Last week there were four plays, one of which I used in my homepage post for a winner, W. Mich/Wisc.
Overall the play went 2-2. (Should have been 3-1. Ohio St. was up 45-6 with just two minutes left in the game. On their next possession they would take a knee and the game would stay Un. But the Akron head coach decided that being down 39 points would be a good time to give his third string quarterback a couple reps, and the jackass threw a pick 6, pushing the game Over.)
This week the system kicked out a ridiculous 12 plays. I checked my log books and it’s never kicked out this many before. So I double checked the numbers.
And they’re accurate.
All plays will be listed in the PredictEm forum for record keeping purposes and in case anyone is looking for an angle on one of the games.
If this were later in the season, after I’d had a look at a couple of weeks to see how this play is performing, I would have a better idea of what to do this week. But I’m flying blind here, so I’m going to lean on a team’s week one performance to choose which of these Unders I’m going to play.
Nebraska won in this spot last week so I’m going to stick with what works.
The opening 56 is already up a FG, no sense buying the 59 when it’s heading in the right direction.
I’m waiting to buy and monitoring my screens. I’ll post my final number in the forum.
Good luck with your play this week.
Record (Sept) 0-1 (WNBA)
College football overall 2-0
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