Battling the Books: UFL Week 2 Pick
Houston at Arlington Pick
Sunday, April 6th 12:00 p.m. EST
UFL Week 1 is in the books, and I don’t know about you, but I had fun. I hit both of my picks and enjoyed watching football again. But that joy may be short-lived because the biggest story coming out of week one isn’t any of the scores; it’s the poor attendance across the board. If it continues, there likely won’t be a season 3. They may not even make it out of season 2. So let’s try and bank some units and have some fun while we can.
Here are some basic stats from week one:
Favs were 2-2.
Overs were 2-2.
Three of the games were blowouts. Michigan won by 14, Arlington won by 24, and St Louis won by 25.
My tout/sports writers consensus numbers show a record of 3-1 on sides and 2-2 on totals.
Good thing I didn’t go with the Fade. Instead, I went with my gut feel and took Arlington +2’and the Over (tout numbers had 11 picks for Arlington and just 3 for San Antonio, and 6 for the Over, just three on the Under.)
It’s always easy in hindsight but I did make a big mistake and so did anyone else who didn’t bet DC last week. It’s something I mention from time to time throughout my articles and in forum posts (as recently as last week in the UFL forum):
” Using the basic premise that the books don’t stay in business by paying everyone, I’ll normally Fade the consensus play.”
What was the biggest consensus on the board last week?
Birmingham -7, a unanimous pick at 15-0.
Final score: DC 18, Birmingham 11.
BIG mistake laying off that one.
I’m submitting this article three days before kickoff because I know this line’s going up.
Right now, Arlington is just a 10-point favorite over Houston, and I’m grabbing the Renegades.
I do a lot of work with numbers but sometimes you just have to get back to basic handicapping – betting against a team solely because they stink.
And anyone who watched this league last year knows, and it was confirmed in week 1 – Houston STINKS.
From last week, before kickoff:
“Houston had the worst offense in the league last year, and for some unfathomable reason, they brought back the same coaching staff.”
From last week, after the game:
“I counted at least three times during the game when the announcers commented on Houston coach CJ Johnson’s decision making, using a “What the hell is he thinking??!!” tone.
From play calling to clock management and using timeouts, he’s just all-around-awful.
When I watch this guy I find myself wondering if he understands the object of the game is to score more points than the other team.”
CJ and his Roughnecks went 1-9 last year.
They’re 0-1 this year.
And it was ugly:
They lost by 25 points.
They scored their only touchdown in garbage time at the end of the game.
They managed just 170 total yards on offense.
They managed just 76 passing yards.
Houston QB Anthony Brown threw two interceptions and no touchdowns before getting yanked.
They gave up almost 500 yards (273 on the ground, 187 in the air.)
And all of that was at home.
Now they have to go on the road to face Arlington, who beat up San Antonio 33-9.
As the season progresses, the books are going to keep raising the line against Houston as more and more bettors catch on to just how bad they are.
At -10, I expect this number to be a gift because of one more stat: it’s being played on Sunday, April 6th.
My birthday.
And this is the only present I want – an Arlington blowout.
(Although I’m not sure if I still believe my birthday should be a lucky day like I used to in the past. At the age I’m reaching this year, it might just be considered bad luck!)
I can’t offer my normal consensus numbers on this game; only a couple of articles and picks have been posted. Right now I’ve got four sides on Arlington, zero on Houston, two Unders, one Over.
Houston is so bad that the consensus, when all picks are in and charted, may very well turn out to be another unanimous pick, like Birmingham (loser) was last week.
Unanimous picks were 1-1 last year.
As always, I’ll post the final numbers in the PredictEm forum.
Bovada is still at Arl -10; grab it now; this one’s going to -11 or -12 by game time.
My Play:
Arl -10
UFL Recap: 2-0
UFL Record: 2-0