Battling the Books: UFL Early Play

UFL Early Buy Notice:

Houston (0-2) at Memphis (0-2)

The lines are out for week 3 and I KNOW this one’s not going to get any better, it can only get worse so I bought it today (Monday morning.)
In a battle of winless teams I’m taking Memphis at home -3.

This bet is based on the same simple premise I used last week: Houston is a lousy team.
Making matters worse, they’re burdened with a clueless coach. Anyone familiar with the situation is wondering – how the hell does this guy still have the job??!! (During last week’s game, one of the TV announcers actually referred to the coach’s play calling as dinosaur-like.)

The “Houston Sucks” strategy didn’t work out for me last week as Arlington put up just 11 points after scoring 33 in week one, but I’ll attribute that to the Renegades taking Houston lightly while looking ahead to their big matchup vs powerhouse Birmingham on the road this week.

While they looked terrible on offense, the Arlington defense only gave up nine points, but I’ll attribute that to the fact that the Houston offense sucks rather than Arlington played a tight D.

On defense, Memphis and Houston are similar.
Memphis has surrendered a total of 42 points in their two games for an average of 21, while Houston has surrendered 43 for a 21.5 PPG average.

But on offense, Memphis has a clear edge.
The Showboats have scored 24 points in two games.

Yes, dear readers, I know what you’re thinking, “How the hell could scoring just 12 points per game be an edge??!!”
Here’s how – Houston is even worse.
The Roughnecks have scored just 15 points in their first two games for an average of 7.5 per!

Last year, the Showboats came out on top 18-12 in the season opener and got the sweep when they won again in week ten, 19-12. I expect this game will be pretty similar, a low-scoring affair with Memphis winning and covering the cheap price of just three points against a god-awful Houston team and their Pop Warner coach.

The Showboats and Roughnecks are tied for last place in the USFL Conference. After Saturday, only one of them will inhabit that lowly position, and Houston is the far more likely candidate.

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Some general numbers for the UFL after two weeks of play:
Favs 2-2, Dogs 2-2
Over 2-6, Un 6-2
No edges for sides.

The Under has been profitable.

Sound familiar?
In my week one UFL article from March 29th I pointed out that last year the record for the Under in the first two weeks was 5-1-2.

People looking at this year’s 6-2 are likely going to do the same thing a lot of people did last year after the 5-1 start: they’ll look to play the Under again in week three.
How did that work out for them last year?
In week three, the Over went 4-0.
The books adjust.
Something to keep in mind if you’re considering jumping on the Under trend this week.

Looking at my poll numbers, what do I have to work with going into week three?

Unanimous picks are 0-1 on sides (a Fav) and 1-0 on totals (an Under.)

Favs where one team had four or more picks than the other side are 2-3.

Unders where there were four or more picks than the Over are 6-1. After the Under went 4-0 last week and is now at 6-2 for the season, I expect the poll numbers to be lopsided towards the Under again this week.
And I expect the reversion to begin.

Side note: I mentioned this in my forum posts on Sunday – UFL analyst Erin Dolan kept bringing up how the Under is profitable in the UFL. She mentioned this at least four or five times, sounding tout-like, almost pleading with bettors to take Unders. Another reason to be wary of them this week.

Here’s an interesting tidbit from the polls – I’m using 15 “handicappers” going into week three.
Of those 15 only ONE has a winning ATS record on sides.
Three are losing juice at 4-4.
That means 11 of them have losing records.

Totals aren’t much better.
Only five of the 15 have a winning record.
This is why I decided to try a Fade the Touts methodology for handicapping the UFL, where I have no history of my own handicapping models to rely on, or stats on the teams in the new league.

If anyone is wondering who these 15 sources I’m using are, sorry, I won’t mention any of their names. The purpose of this exercise is to try and find a way to handicap a new league without a lot of stats and history to rely on. It’s just a methodology I’m experimenting with, not a way to put down touts (not that they don’t deserve it; I noticed at least six of the 15 aren’t keeping an honest record so they can make themselves look better.)

Two of them are winless on sides, but it’s not a good strategy to just Fade their picks in week three (though I hope they’re not on any of my picks this week.)
Jumping on an already established streak is not a winning way to handicap.

My play:

Memphis -3

Recap (UFL): 0-1
Record: 2-1
Review: Lost with Arlington, friggin’ slackers.