Battling the Books: Texas Tech vs. Drake Predictions

Drake vs Texas Tech Prediction

When: Saturday, March 22 at 3:00 p.m. PST

My last pick here, the hot spot I’ve been riding for the last week or so, lost when the Yale/Texas A&M game went Over the total.

Going into that play, this model was at 21-4 for Unders. The total in that game was 139′ when I bought it.
It closed at 140′.
The game landed on 151, going over my number by 11′.

In my analysis, I said that 21-4, an 84% win percentage, was ripe for Reversion Toward the Mean.
Is that what happened?
Has RTM started for this play, or was the Yale/Texas A&M game just a rare win for the Over?
I’ll have a better idea on which direction the play is going Saturday afternoon when one spot qualifies – Drake vs Texas Tech.
The line is 127.

Here are the round one results for both teams:

Drake 67, Missouri 57; total points scored 124

Texas Tech 82, UNC Wilmington 72; 154

Drake’s first game came in just three points Under the total set for their round two matchup.
The Texas Tech game came in at 27 points higher.

Drake games average 128 points.
That’s one point higher than this game.
Texas Tech games average 146 points.
That’s 19 points higher than this game.

Recent play, last five games, Drake scores have been 124, 111, 107, 123, and 118.
ALL five games Under the total on this one.
Average score per game is 116′, which is 9′ points fewer than this one.
Looks like Under material, right?
But . . .
Texas Tech, last five games, 154, 166, 150, 142, and 166.
ALL five games are Over the total on this one.
Average score per game is 155, which is 28 points higher than the total in this one.
Looks like Over material, right?

When looking at rankings for PPG on defense, you don’t have to go far down the list to find Drake. They’re sitting at number two, with only the Houston Cougars ahead of them.
Drake gives up only 59.7 PPG on D.
Texas Tech isn’t too deep into the list, sitting at #46, surrendering 67.7 per.
Combining the two we get a total of 127, the same number the books hung on this one.

On offense, the Bulldogs average 70 PPG, and the Red Raiders put up 81 PPG.
Combining the two we get 151, which is 24 points higher than the books hung on this one.

Which side of the ball will dictate the pace in this one, offense or defense?
Based on the book’s number we know they think it’s the defenses.

In round one, Drake held Missouri, the number 9 scoring team in the country, to just 57 points, TWENTY-EIGHT points fewer than the Tigers average of 85 PPG.
I don’t think they’ll get that same type of defensive performance again this week.
Texas Tech will score more than 57, especially if they get back their second leading scorer Chance McMillan, who averages 14.2 PPG.
He didn’t play against NC Wilmington, and he’s listed as a game time decision for Saturday, but with elimination on the line against a tougher opponent in round two I expect him to suit up. He may not get his usual 30 minutes but even half that much playing time will give his team a boost.

This game will come down to which team controls the pace and gets to play their style.

So what’s it going to be for me?
Stick with a hot trend off a loss, or bet that Reversion Toward the Mean has begun and go against the tide?

Drake won’t have the same success they had facing #6 seed Missouri when they face #3 seed Texas Tech. The Bulldogs held the Tigers to just 25% from the 3-point line. The Red Raiders average 37.9% on three pointers and though the Drake defense will likely hold them under that number I think Texas Tech will still hit enough three pointers for the win and the Over.

My gut feeling tells me this total is too low.
And I always follow my gut.

My Play:

Drake/Texas Tech Ov 126′
Recap: 0-1
Record (college): 4-4
Review: Missed with Under in the Yale game.