Battling the Books: Sunday Smorgasbord 4/13/25
NBA and NASCAR at Bristol
Bet #1: Toronto at San Antonio
Both of these teams have been eliminated from the playoffs. So, who’s going to show up and play with some pride in their final game?
It was the same situation for them both last year, both eliminated, both playing meaningless games.
Toronto lost on the road at Miami by 15 points, 118-103.
San Antonio was at home facing Detroit and won by 28 points, 123-95.
That’s two edges favoring a play on the Spurs today.
And then there’s this:
WF2 says Toronto should be the Fav.
WF1 says the Spurs are the correct Fav, and the differential between the numbers for each system qualifies this as an asterisk play.
NBA asterisk plays on the Rd is the only spot in any sport that has a winning record in this system (5-4.)
I’m going with the odds here and saying that at the end of the regular season, there’s a better chance that this spot will join all the others and NOT have a winning record.
I’m taking SA -5.
One additional reason for the pick – on the final day of the season last year, WF2 was 0-4.
I’m looking for similar results today.
NBA Recap: 1-0
Record: 9-10
Review: Won with Boston’s team total over 116′ when they put up 130 after that disastrous 76 vs Orlando. That puts me one game under .500 with one play left today, the last day of the season.
Bet #2: NASCAR Caution Flags Prop Over 8, -115
I lost with this prop last week when the final number came in at 8, but it was a narrow miss as there was an accident on the final lap but the checkered flag was out so no caution flag was waived.
Yes, this is a bit of a self-indulgent bet – I like rooting for crashes so I’m always jaded towards the Over, but at Bristol there’s a lot of contact and the numbers back up my play. The track average is 8.4 yellows per race. And there’s reason to expect a few more today.
Drivers like Larson and Logano have criticized NASCAR officials for putting out unnecessary yellow flags this weekend at Bristol, disrupting the race without good cause.
Fans on social media agree the flags were not warranted, and you have to wonder if the same thing will happen today.
Bet #3: NASCAR Matchup Gibbs -140 over Briscoe
Once again, our very own Ms. Veronica Vroom steered her readers in the right direction, picking Denny Hamlin to win last week at Darlington. I used her top choice in a Head to Head matchup vs Blaney and banked a winner.
The race was both boring and exciting.
Byron led for 243 laps. A limited number of lead changes makes for a boring race.
But in the end it was exciting as Hamlin benefited from a caution flag, entering Pit Road behind Blaney (who clearly had the best car in the race in the final laps) but coming out just ahead of him and getting the win.
For today’s race, I’m using her third choice, Ty Gibbs, in his matchup against Chase Briscoe.
I screwed up on not recommending this bet on Saturday when Gibbs was at -115. I should have posted an “early buy notice” in the forum in anticipation of the line going up before my article gets published on Sunday.
NASCAR record: 3-1, +1.7 units
Accounting Update:
Last week, I was late in submitting my Sunday Smorgasbord article. It was published a few minutes before the NASCAR race started, leaving no time for people to make make a decision if they wanted to play my picks or not. Seeing this was going to happen, I posted them in the forum with plenty of time before the race started.
I keep separate records for my article picks and forum picks. Last week’s NASCAR plays, 1-1, will be added to the forum record.
The NBA play will be added to the record for article picks because it was published in time for bettors to have 4-5 hours to decide whether they wanted to take the play or not.