Battling the Books: Sunday Smorgasbord

It’s Sunday, time for another day of getting a few bets in and relaxing and yelling at my TV.

I have a UFL game (see my previous article) to cover my morning action, then I’m heading to Darlington for some midday fun rooting for cars to kiss the wall (but not Hamlin’s), and I’m closing the day out with some night time NBA action.

Bet #1, NASCAR matchup

Hamlin -105 Ov Blaney

After taking a few weeks off because the circuit was at tracks that I find too boring to watch, I’m back today with another NASCAR matchup.

NASCAR returns to Darlington for the Goodyear 400. Our very own Ms. Veronica Vroom likes Denny Hamlin to win, so I searched for a matchup with him against one of the drivers who I think is in for a bad day.
And my notes have Ryan Blaney circled as that man.

Most books have Blaney as the their third choice to win today at approximate odds of 6-1, and Hamlin right behind him as the fourth choice at 7-1. But Blaney has only had three top tens in 16 races at Darlington and zero top fives. I think he’s overpriced – AND over matched in a head-to-head in this match up with Denny Hamlin.

Hamlin won last week at Martinsville and it’s difficult to win two aces in a row but I don’t need him to win, I just need him to beat Blaney.
That’s why I like head-to-head matchups when betting on NASCAR.

Bet #2, NASCAR prop

Number of Caution Flags Ov 8′, +110

I knew the number of caution flags for Darlington would be higher than it’s been for other races this season (average of 5′), but I was hoping I could get a 7′. At 8′, the books set this one just above the track average of 7.6 per race.

I don’t like the number, but I’m betting it anyway.
Every once in a while, it’s okay to disregard stats and bet for something you want to root for, something that gives you an interest in what you’re going to watch, something you want to see happen.
It’s like when you make a homer bet and put your money on your favorite team regardless of the situation, just because you want to root for them to win.
And that’s what this bet is for me – lines and stats be damned, I want to see a couple crashes today, a couple of tire blowouts, a couple of kisses with the wall, and a blown engine or two, all resulting in caution flags coming out at the track nicknamed, “The Race Too Tough to Tame.”

Bet #3, NBA side

NY -8′

For my final trip to the Betting Buffet table I’m going to help myself to the Knicks laying the points at home against the Phoenix Suns.

One of my two methods for identifying the Wrong Favorite in a game, WF1, says Phoenix should be the Fav here.
The record for Rd teams in this spot is 43-28.
That’s a 60% spot to play ON.
But I’m going the other way on this one.
Why?
A couple of reasons.

First, my NBA play has been off this week, so I don’t feel like relying on it today. It’s hard to go against my own numbers but this spot has lost four of its last five plays so I’ll go with the recent trend over the season-long established one that has it at 60%.

Second, in this WF1 spot Phoenix has been the Wrong Favorite four times. They’ve lost three of those four spots.

And New York has been the play ON team, the actual Fav, seven times and has won four of them.

New York won the only meeting between these two earlier this year, 138-122.

The Suns have lost five straight.
Their end of season collapse has all but knocked them out of contention for the final playoff spot as they are now two games behind Sacramento with just five games left.
And Kevin Durant is out.

The Knicks get their star Jalen Brunson back tonight, which has inflated the line just a bit.
It opened at NY -8 and is up to -9 now.

I’m hoping Phoenix’s recent collapse and fall out of the playoff spot will have them depressed and continuing their losing ways, while Bronson’s return and some home crowd energy will help the Knicks cover this number.

NBA Recap: 0-1
Record: 7-9

Review: Dallas won the game against Atlanta but couldn’t cover the -3′ and I took a loss with my last play.
I’m now two games under .500 with my NBA play.
I have handicapping models with decent percentages to play ON or AGAINST but I’m not doing a good job of picking when to use them so I thought it’d be a good idea to look back at last year’s NBA play here at PredictEm to see what I used, see what worked for me. Unfortunately, I only started contributing in June, when the season was ending.
I only gave out six picks and went 3-3, so nothing to help me there.

NASCAR record: 3-1, +1.7 units