Battling the Books: St Francis vs Alabama State Total Prediction

As always in my articles, let’s look at some numbers:

20-3
That’s the record for the A vs B handicapping model I’ve been using for recent picks (a game qualifies as an Over for system B but the number for system A says the game stays Under.)
That’s 87% winners.

10-2
That’s the record for the play since I’ve been sharing it at PredictEm, either in my articles or in the forum.
That’s 83%.

Why didn’t I post the other eleven spots?
Because like all handicapping methods I use, it started out with a record of 0-0.
I had no idea it would be profitable, it could have come out 50-50 like most systems.
When my charts showed me that I might be on to something (when I saw the record of 1-8) I started sharing them.

10-1
That’s the record of the shared plays for anyone who followed my advice and didn’t bet the North Texas game Under on Friday.
The Mean Green were 1-0 in this spot, the only game they qualified for went Over. So I didn’t bet the Under despite the fact that the play was 19-2 going into the game.
The game went Over by 10 points.

And that’s why I track subcategories (systems within a system.)
Subcategories are all about refining handicapping systems to come up with plays that will provide you with a higher win percentage and increase your profits.

In this case, by looking at how a specific team performs within that 19-2 record, I was able to see that North Texas had a record of 1-0 to the Over. Which told me to lay off the Under in this particular spot.

Another example of a subcategory incorporates point differentials. For example, within this A vs B system, when the differential is 18 points or more the Over is 0-5, 100%.

In other words, the books make a game total 132.
“B” says the total should be 145 which is enough of a point differential (13) for it to qualify as a B play.
“A” says the total should be 126 (not enough to qualify as an A play but I can still use the number as a measurement against the total from B.)
The differential between A and B is 19 points so it qualifies for the subcategory of 18 or greater.

Why do I go into detailed explanations on my handicapping methods like I do above?
Because I gear my columns towards people who want to learn how to handicap.
For those who just want picks they can always skip to the bottom of the article. But I write to teach, to share my experience, to help people who are trying to figure out how to handicap for themselves.
It’s the old “fish” parable:

Give a man a fish, feed him for a day.

Teach a man to fish, feed him for a lifetime.

Try to teach a man to fish but he says, “Why should I have to fish? Just give me some of yours” and you know what party they vote for..

(As a general rule I avoid politics in my articles, but the, “Just gimme some of yours” line is funny and thus worth sharing.)

Now on to today’s play.
On the first day of the tournaments I have no games that fit the A vs B spot detailed above (damn it.)
But I have a variation of it.
It may sound complicated (convoluted?) but it’s simple really. This play qualifies as an Under for A. It doesn’t qualify as a B play (not enough of a point difference between B and the book’s number) but B’s total says the game should go Over.
So it’s based on the same concept – my model for picking Unders in system A is much better than my system for picking Overs in system B. So when A says Under and B says Over, take the system with the better record.

St Francis/’Bama St Un 140

The St Francis Red Flash has a record of 19-11 to the Over.
The Alabama State Hornets are 20 – 12 to the Under.
Full seasons combined, that’s a wash at 31-31, so let’s look at recent play.

Red Flash numbers for the season show a 63% edge to the Over, obviously a concern in a game where I’m using the Under. But here’s their scores from the last five games at the end of regulation, in order of oldest to most recent: 146, 136, 113, 139, 89.
The 89 is not a typo, that was the combined score from their last game.
Average combined score 124.6, 15.4 points lower than the line on this game.

The Hornets last five games saw:
131, 106, 163, 126, 116.
Average combined score 128.4, 11.6 lower than the line on this game.

Only two of the 10 games in this recent sample data went over 140.

The loser goes home, the winner gets an invite to the Big Dance and goes home one game later as they face Auburn in the first round.

When to buy: I have no idea which way this number is going to go but I’d lean towards it dropping so I bought it today.

My Play:

St Francis/’Bama St Un 140 Recap: 2-0
Record: 3-3 college basketball
Record: March, all sports 8-6

Review:
Nailed both A vs B spots in my last article.
Mt St Mary/Marist Un 125′ landed on 120, sliding Under by a 5 point cushion.
Tarleton/Cal Bap Un 127′ landed on 106, an easy winner by 21 points.

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