Battling the Books: Two UFL Picks
San Antonio at Arlington Picks
Game time: Saturday, March 29th at 4:00 p.m. ET
The UFL season two begins this week!
Can you feel the excitement?
No?
That’s because there is none.
But I’m into it, and so are a lot of other sports bettors.
Spring football keeps us amused until the real sport starts – the WNBA. (Yes, kidding.)
Eight teams, four games each week.
And I’ll have picks every week.
I started posting here at PredictEm in June 2024, when the UFL season was nearing its end, so I only had picks in six games (record 3-3.)
But I handicapped the sport for the full year, using a unique method, something I call the, “Fade the Know-it-All-but-Really-Know-Nothing-Touts.”
Because it was the inaugural season for the league, I had no data or stats to research and rely on.
No one did.
So I decided to take a consensus of touts and sports writers who offered their “knowledge” and predictions on the games.
I looked primarily for guys who used computer models for predictions (what good was a computer when you had no past data to feed it?)
And then . . . I Faded their consensus plays (to qualify as a consensus play, one team had to have at least four more picks than their opponent that week.)
In the second season, I’ll stick with that method until I start to gather some facts and opinions on my own.
How did the “Fade the Consensus Plays” do?
I dug up my UFL log book from last year, and here’s what I found. In the first 3 weeks of the season, the consensus play on sides was 3-7-2.
That’s a 70% fade!
Totals were 3-4 (the reason there’s more picks on sides than totals is everyone offers a pick on the ATS game winner but not everyone offered totals.)
One other thing I noticed in my charts is that the Under dominated in the first two weeks, going 3-0-1 in week 1 and 2-1-1 in week 2.
That means the Under paid off in five of seven games and only lost in one game, with two pushes.
That would lead you to want to play Unders this week, BUT . . . the oddsmakers aren’t stupid.
The totals in last year’s week one games:
41, 41′, 43, 40′. That’s an average of 41′.
This year’s games (courtesy of our sponsor Bovada):
37′, 37′, 37′, 40′. That’s an average of 38.
This season’s totals dropped by a full field goal, 3′ points per game.
Last year, week one, Unders were profitable at 3-0, with the fourth game being a push.
Using this year’s average total per game the record would have been 2-2, for no profit.
The books adjust.
Week one Dogs last year were 3-0-1.
Average spread was -5.
My notes from last year show that when there was unanimous pick the record was 1-2 ATS.
Birmingham is a unanimous pick this week, so beware of taking the obvious Fav. (Although if you were going to play an obvious Fav the Stallions are the way to go, they’ve dominated three straight seasons now.)
Game one was played last night.
Both plays with the higher number of picks won, St Louis (by a lot) and the Under (by the hook.)
I’ll post numbers for Sunday’s game in the PredictEm forum. Here’s what I have today:
San Antonio 3, Arlington 10
Ov 6, Un 3
Note – Last year, games with a consensus differential of four or more picks on one side won at a 63% clip! Arlington qualifies today.
My plays:
ARL +2′
SA/Arl Ov (Wait to buy this. There’s still a couple hours before game time and all the 37′ have higher juice on the Under. Check the forum for the number I get.)
Bankroll running low? Fix that problem today by grabbing one of numerous 100% bonuses using our sportsbook promo codes!