Battling the Books: RBD’s Saturday Card
NBA Minnesota at LA Prediction
UFL Birmingham at Houston Prediction
I bought two plays today.
Birmingham Stallions at Houston Roughnecks
Before I get to my selection here are some basic UFL numbers as we enter week 4.
Favs were 4-8 coming into this weekend, now 5-8 after Michigan covered as the Fav against Memphis on Friday night.
Last night’s game went Over so the totals are now
Ov 5-8, Un 8-5
From my poll numbers:
Favorites with four or more picks than the other side are just 2-5. (I’ve got one of those tomorrow, DC has six picks, San Antonio just one.)
Unders with four or more picks are 6-1 (I’ve got one of those today. The StL/Arl game has two picks on the Over and seven on the Under.)
It’s getting more and more difficult to take a poll to use to find Fades for UFL picks.
Before the season started I found write-ups/picks from more than 16 different sources. After just three weeks I can only find 11.
Some of them have stopped giving picks.
I don’t know why, but maybe because going into week four NONE of them have a winning record ATS, and only three have a winning record on totals.
(Poll numbers for all three games left this weekend can be found in the PredictEm forum.)
Fortunately, I’ve got a couple weeks worth of data now to look at and try and figure something out for my plays without relying entirely on the poll numbers. And watching the games helps (it’s how I know Houston stinks. It’s how ANYONE who’s watching knows Houston stinks.)
Here’s why I’m taking Birmingham today.
We have a team that’s overperforming (Houston) facing a team that’s underperforming (Birmingham.)
Eventually, the pendulum always swings back the other way. And it’s time for the natural order of things to be restored with these two teams.
Birmingham is 2-1 SU, Houston is 1-2.
How can I say that the team with the losing record is the one that’s overperforming?
Because one win is ONE more than they should have. It’s only the third week of the season and they’ve already equaled their total wins for last season.
They’re not getting another one today.
In the past, Birmingham has been the team that rewarded betters with a profit and Houston has been a solid Fade. This year, Birmingham is just 1-2 ATS, and Houston is 2-1. That’s backwards, and I expect it to start self-correcting today.
And then there’s this. Many years ago, I read Freud’s “Interpretation of Dreams.” I don’t remember a damn thing about it but last night I had a dream that I went to bet the Stallions in this game but was screwed because the game already started and was off the board.
And I was further screwed because they were beating the Roughnecks by 21 points!
I don’t know how Freud would interpret that but I’m reading it as BE SURE to get my bet in on Birmingham this morning. BEFORE kickoff.
And that’s what I did.
Houston’s lone win came against the worst team in the league, Memphis. The Showboats are winless at 0-4 and have given up a league-worst 88 points, an average of 22 per.
Birmingham is off to a slow start, and were thisclose to being 1-2 instead of 2-1. The Arlington Renegades took a 3-0 lead in the first quarter last week against the Stallions and held on to that lead until Birmingham scored a TD with just 26 seconds left on the game clock, then made the extra point to win by one.
The Stallions haven’t been playing well this season, but Houston is the perfect opponent for them to get things back on the right track.
Minnesota Timberwolves at LA Lakers
I’m turning to my own personal unique handicapping models for this play.
And fading my numbers.
As noted in my previous NBA column, towards the end of the regular season I tightened up my qualifying parameters for my top system for choosing totals.
It finished up at 10-4, Ov 7-3, Un 3-1.
Thus far in the postseason, it’s just 1-1.
Both games were Overs.
At 8-4 in the last 12 spots, I should be leaning towards the Over, but I’m going against my model in tonight’s game.
The books opened this game at 219.
This morning it’s down to 217/216′ (you can grab it at our sponsor Bovada at 217.)
And for good reason.
Let’s delve into the numbers.
Regular season stats have Minnesota with a slight edge to the Over at 44-38, LAL was a losing proposition for Over bettors at 41-41.
No real edge.
H/A numbers have the Wolves slight edge to the Over disappearing as they’re 20-21 on the Rd.
LA is 20-21 at Hm.
Playoffs usually see teams playing tighter D.
Here’s a look at recent postseason performances by both teams:
Last season round one, three games in Minnesota’s four game sweep against Phoenix went Over the posted total.
In round one, four of the Lakers five games stayed Under when they were eliminated by the Denver Nuggets.
The Wolves numbers there favor the Over, LA’s favor the Under.
Head to head this year all four games between these two stayed Under the posted total.
AND . . . not a single one of those games cleared the total the books set on tonight’s contest.
Here are the the total point scored in each:
213, 189, 184, and 213.
That’s an average of 199 per game, or 18 points lower than tonight’s total.
And here’s the deciding factor for me on this play. Both of these teams have been off since last Sunday, April 13th. Like Mr. Young says, “Rust never sleeps” and I expect that off a 6-day lay off both of these teams will be fresh on defense but a little bit off their game on offense. The first quarter will be telling.
My plays:
Birmingham -7′
Min/LAL Un 217 Recap: NBA: 1-0
Record: 10-10
Review: Bagged a winner on the total in the Atl/Orl game.
Recap: UFL: 0-1
Record: UFL: 2-1
Review: Lost my last play betting against Houston. (No, today’s play is not seeking revenge, it’s based on serious stuff, like stats and numbers, and my dream last night, so okay not all serious stuff, but definitely not revenge. Okay maybe a little bit of revenge.)