Battling the Books: Raptors vs. Bulls Spread Bet

Toronto at Chicago NBA Prediction

Game time: 8:00 PM ET

Line: Bulls -5

One of my favorite plays of the last few months has been the asterisk spot. And for good reason – it’s been a consistent winner for me across all sports that I handicap.
Right now, it’s sitting at 6-10, a 62% Fade in the NBA. However, the Home/Away subcategory breakdown shows it’s 2-6 at home but just 4-4 on the road. Overall, it’s still a winner, but it’s dropped two of the last Rd games that qualified, so there’s no profit there.

Tonight, Toronto qualifies as a Fade, but they’re on the Rd. Which means I have a decision to make: take the Fade and go with a proven winner, or stay off the game because lately, a reversion toward the mean has set in?

To help make the decision, maybe I can find an edge in a team-specific subcategory – has Toronto been in the Fade spot before?
Has Chicago ever been the “play ON” team?

Checking my charts, I see that way back on Wednesday, October 23rd, opening day of the NBA season, Toronto was an asterisk Fade.
They lost the game by 30 points.
That was the only spot that qualified for either team this season.
A 30 point loss puts a checkmark in the “play ON” Side of the ledger for this Fade.
But then there’s this:
Chicago played last night. This sends me off to check their record in B2B spots (Back to Back.)
They’re 3-8 SU.
They’re 3-8 ATS.

So I’ve got a 72% team-based trend that says Fade Chicago, and an asterisk spot that was profitable but lately shows a lean towards reversion toward the mean.
AND of their eight losses in the back-to-back spot, the Bulls have lost seven of them by double digits. And they’re Favs tonight.

I have one more way to look at this play and which way to go on it – I look at me, my personal play, how am I at reading these two teams and betting on the situations I have them in?
I bet ON Toronto as a Dog once this season, and I’m 1-0.
I bet AGAINST them as a Dog, and I won that one, too.
Short data sample but I have a good read on Toronto so far with my bets. No plays involving Chicago yet.

Toronto has won four straight games.
Chicago has dropped two straight.

Yes, Toronto’s likely to rest leading scorer Barrett tonight. But they rested him against Utah and won straight up by 9 points, and then they rested him at Washington and won by 8 SU. I’ll take them tonight.

My play:

Tor +5