NBA Prediction Detroit and New York

Tuesday, April 29, at 7:30 EST
Line: NY -5′, 213

Tonight, a young, inexperienced Detroit team faces elimination. I went back to round one last year to look for the results on totals for games where one of the two teams was facing elimination. I found a 4-2 edge for the Under (not including the Miami/Boston game 5; it could have gone either way, Over or Under, depending on what number you got.)

One of the two Overs needed overtime to surpass the total of 201. Remove the OT points, and the game stayed Under by eight points.
That game was played at . . . NY, and I’m heading to the Garden for my action tonight.

Stats on the elimination games from last year favor an Under tonight, but I’m going the other way. Let’s get into the numbers.

Tonight’s total is down to 213 from an opening 214′. Earlier today there were a couple 212′ on the board but they’re gone now, 213 is the common number.

During the regular season, all four meetings between these two easily surpassed 213.
The four games played out to 226, 231, 243, and 221.
Game by game, they went over by 13 points, 18, 30, and 8. So in three of four games the Over covered by double digits.

The postseason isn’t so easy to read, in fact it’s been a little weird.
The Ov/Un is 2-2. That in itself isn’t weird, but here are the four totals:
187, 234, 194, and 235.
So two of the games stayed Under tonight’s total by 26 and 19 points, and two of the games went Over by 21 and 22.
Talk about making a handicapper’s life difficult!

Breaking it down further into Hm/Rd doesn’t help, as the games played in New York were 194 and 235, an Under by 19, and an Over by 22.

After looking at totals from round one elimination games last year, and team specific stats on the their play this season, I turned to my own models seeking an edge.
T2 says to take the game Over.
Postseason record is 10-13, a slight edge for a Fade at 56%.
And in a subcategory that I track, when T1 disagrees and says the game will come in Under, the T2 record is 4-5. Another edge, slightly.
But I’m going against both of my stats, with little regret as the edges are slight. Tonight’s game comes down to this – will Detroit show up hungry and ready to play, or will their youth and experience make them look like Miami at Boston last night, losers, by 55 points (not a typo, 55!)

A lot of bettors are claiming that Detroit got robbed in game four when Hardaway was clearly fouled trying to hit a three-pointer on the last play of the game.
Yes, it was a foul and should have been called.
And yes, they would only have needed to hit two of three to win the game.
The refs screwed up (and admitted so after the game), but if Pistons head coach Bickerstaff hadn’t wasted a challenge on a meaningless play IN THE FIRST QUARTER, Detroit would have had a chance to win.
The blame squarely falls on his shoulders.
And he deserves all the backlash he’s getting for coaching like a clueless amateur.

I don’t see a Miami-like meltdown for Detroit tonight. My play is based on Detroit coming out hungry and angry after that Game 4 loss.
I’m riding the Over in this one.

My play:

Det/NY Ov 214 (I could have got 212′ when I began this article. Mid-write up, it went to 213. Now it’s a 214. I have to write quicker!)

NBA Series Bets update, Mil/Ind and LAC/Den

Mil/Ind Ov 5′ games
During the regular season, Milwaukee won three of four games against Indiana. Their only loss was by one point after a last second four point play (they hit a three-pointer, got fouled, and made the free throw as time ran out.)
Based on those regular season results it didn’t seem too much to ask that they would get two wins in the postseason.
The series started poorly, trouble from the get-go as the Bucks got swept on the road at Indiana. They picked up a W in game three at home but got killed in game four. Indiana made the first shot of the game, went up 2-0, and never gave up the lead, eventually winning by 26 points.
Game 5 is tonight.
In my write-up and analysis on this series bet I said, “I’ve seen the Bucks play a few times this year and every time I do I find myself thinking, “Man, this team is over the hill. These guys look old. Hopefully, they’re not too old to win at least two in this series.”

Unfortunately, they are too old.
Watching game four in Milwaukee it looked like they quit. They looked totally uninterested.
Based on that, I expect them to lay down in Indiana tonight. And there’s no way I can hedge off my action based on the line on Indy.

This means I need to win my other series bet to break even and only lose juice.

LAC/Den
This one heads back to Denver with the series tied 2-2. I have a position on the Clippers to win the series. I’m okay at 2-2 but the Clippers had the lead with under a minute to go in game four, at home, and ended up losing by two points when they couldn’t get a rebound after Denver missed a shot and the Nuggets tipped it in for a win with .01 left on the clock.

NBA recap: 0-1
Record: 12-11
Review: missed with Mia/Cle Un 211′ with my last pick.