Battling the Books – November Record Update & Free Pick
November Accounting and an NBA Free Play
November marked my sixth month here at PredictEm. Here’s my record for web page article picks, month by month:
June 16-13
July 13-12
August 15-3
September 10-10.5
October 12-7
November 11-7
Total: 77-52.50, 59%.
A profit in every month except September, when I dropped a unit and a half including juice.
And I’m looking forward to December, when I have some really strong bowl game systems to work with.
And now, on to my NBA bet for today.
This is the first time I’ve had free picks in an article since way back on October 23rd, when I split my first two picks of the year.
There are a few reasons why I’ve had so few NBA picks in my articles.
One reason is because I’m spending most of my handicapping time on football.
Another reason is because it takes a lot of time to handicap basketball, especially college because there are so many games. By the time I’m done running all the games through my various handicapping methods it’s hours past my submission time to get an article published. (I have no deadline to meet in the forum though, so I have used a couple of basketball picks there, 4-0 in the NBA and 16-8 in college.)
But the main reason is because the NBA is a hard league for me to handicap and beat.
Why?
I don’t like the NBA.
I don’t like betting it.
I don’t like watching it.
I don’t like the league, the players, or their commissioner, who looks like the villain in a Bond movie.
To do your best as a handicapper you have to watch the sport that you’re ‘capping. It helps you pick up things that you can use for future bets, such as coach’s and team’s tendencies. That’s why the NBA will never be my best sport. I tried watching but I can’t, even when I have money on the game, I end up switching channels looking for something more interesting.
Here’s a perfect example of why I don’t like the NBA. Friday, November 15th, I had an interest in the Memphis at Golden State game because it qualified as a Stupid Asterisk Play. In my PredictEm forum post I explained why I didn’t take the Warriors, despite SAP being the hottest play I have working right now across all sports.
The Warriors were -7, up by nine points, end of game, shot clock turned off.
Golden State has the ball.
They’ll dribble out the remaining few seconds, game over.
Except for somebody called Buddy Hield.
With just 18 seconds left, Hield is called for traveling.
Traveling!
In a run-out-the-clock situation!
The Grizzlies get the ball and score an easy layup.
The Warrior’s sure winner is now going to end up as a push.
Except for somebody called Buddy Hield.
With just FIVE seconds left in the game, in a dribble-out-the-clock situation, Buddy Hield turns the ball over. AGAIN.
That makes it TWICE in 13 seconds.
With .01 left Memphis scores and covers the spread by two.
And that’s why I don’t watch the NBA. (Stuff like that is also why bettors scream, “FIX!”)
Yes, you can see the same stupid mistakes in college basketball and in the WNBA.
But that’s excusable.
In college they’re just kids, and in the WNBA they’re. . . well, it doesn’t need to be said. Okay, I’ll say it – they’re amateurs. (You thought I was going to say “women” didn’t you?)
But in the NBA they’re supposed to be pros.
“Supposed” to be.
Now on to tonight’s game where I’m taking the Toronto Raptors to beat the Indiana Pacers.
Both teams have losing records, the Pacers are a lousy 9-12, the Raptors are an even lousier 6-15. But I have two things in my favor:
First – Indiana is just 3-8 ATS on the Rd, Toronto is 7-2 ATS at Hm.
Second – WF1 (Wrong Favorite system number one) says Toronto should be the favorite in this game and while WF1 has a record of just 21-19 overall it’s 8-3, 72% on Hm teams.
These two met earlier this year and Toronto won 130-113 at Hm.
Indiana has lost their last two games, by 24 points and 15 points.
Toronto’s won two of their last three, including a 119-116 victory over Miami in their last game. They’ve won their last three games at home and despite their lousy overall record they do have a winning record at home at 5-4 while Indiana is 2-9 on the road.
When to Buy Recommendation
Indiana opened as Rd Favs of -1.
The line’s gone up two points they’re now -3. I like it at +3 but I’ve got 12 hours till tip off so I might as well wait and see if I can get a little bit more. As usual, I’ll update my pick with the number I get in the PredictEm forum later today.
Today’s play:
Toronto (wait to buy)
Record: 1-1