Battling the Books: NBA Team Total Picks
Charlotte at Boston Prediction
Seeking Celtic RedemptionSometimes, you lose a bet because you made a mistake in your handicapping. You look back in hindsight and can clearly see your error.
And sometimes you handicapped it correctly but lost because your team had an off night.
On my last bet Boston didn’t have just an “off” night, they had an “awf-ul” night.
Boston’s team total was 99′.
They scored 76.
They went Under their team total by a whopping 23 points!
For many teams, a defeat of that magnitude is not extraordinary; it happens sometimes. But for a team of Boston’s caliber, it’s a total meltdown. I had the misfortune to play them on a night when they put up their lowest-scoring output of the year. Their previous low score for a game was 92, 16 points higher than this one.
When ‘capping the game, did I miss the fact that they would be sitting their starters?
No, my research was comprehensive.
I looked at the final two games on their calendar last year when they also sat their starters and relied on backup guards Hauser and Pritchard to lead the team. In those games, Boston scored 131 and 132 points.
Both games saw 50 more points than they managed Wednesday against the Magic.
I loved my numbers and stats going into the play.
It’s the numbers after the play that killed me.
The Celtics take more 3-point attempts per game than any other team in the league.
In fact, this season they broke the NBA record for most 3-point attempts (previously held by the 2022-2023 Golden State Warriors), putting up 55% of their shots from beyond the ark.
In Orlando, Pritchard was 1-7 on threes.
He’s one of the top three-point shooters in the league, averaging 40%.
Wednesday vs Orlando he hit 14%.
Hauser was 2-8.
And Scheierman went 1-7.
As a team, Boston was 7-40 overall on threes.
They hit just seven of FORTY!!!
That’s 17%.
They live and die by the three.
In the Orlando game, they died by it.
A slow, agonizing death.
And so did anyone else who was unfortunate enough to have used them on an Over – like me.
So that’s why I lost the bet, a simply horrendous performance by the Celtics on offense.
You can’t handicap horrendous.
And that’s what Boston was in Orlando.
To quote from the Grinch, they, “Stink, stank, stunk.”
And so tonight’s bet is a simple one for me.
There’s no way Boston will play that poorly again.
I’m looking for them to show some Celtic pride after putting up their lowest number of the season and get back on track offensively in front of their home crowd.
I’m taking their team total Over.
Our sponsor Bookmaker has this at 116′.
This is not a good number for my play.
This number is:
A hook higher than Boston’s PPG average of 116 – an average they obtained by playing all of their starters, not five backups!
Two points higher than Charlotte’s average PPG on defense.
And here’s the killer – it’s more than FORTY points higher than this same lineup scored in their last game!
But I’m biting.
My play:
Boston team total Over 116′ Recap: 0-1
Record: 8-10
Review: As we close in on the end of the regular season, my article picks are two games under .500.
And I didn’t get much help from my NBA forum plays at 8-8.
But the hole is manageable; it is just two units and some juice, so it is easily recoverable. I’m going to need to tighten things up in the postseason if I’m going to beat the NBA this year and grind out a profit.