Battling the Books: NBA Series Bets
Milwaukee Bucks/Indiana Pacers
LA Clippers/Denver Nuggets
There’s a lot to like about betting on a postseason series, especially for action lovers. For the price of one bet you can have a rooting interest on anywhere from four to seven games. What’s not to like?
Bet #1:
Milwaukee/Indiana
Over 5′ games, -165
I’ve got a “gut feel” play on the Bucks and Pacers series, with some stats to back it up.
If you look at the hundreds of bets that I’ve recommended in articles here at PredictEm, the last time you saw me pay -150 or more was probably . . . never.
But that’s what I did this morning with Milwaukee and Indiana.
I bought Over 5′ games for -165.
Milwaukee took the season series, 3-1.
The three wins were 129 -117, 120-112, and 126-119.
The Buck’s lone loss was by a single point, 115-114, when Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton had a four-point play with three seconds left on the clock.
After hitting a 3-point shot, he was fouled by Giannis Antetokounmpo and made the free throw, preventing Milwaukee from getting a sweep.
So if they barely missed sweeping during the regular season, what makes me think they can’t get the sweep during the playoffs?
Three reasons:
#1 – Lillard is likely out for Milwaukee.
In the four games with Indy this season, he scored 24, 9, 15, and 25 for an average of 18 PPG.
2 – Last year in the playoffs, these same two teams met. Milwaukee had home court advantage but it didn’t help – they were sent on early vacation, Indiana winning four games to two.
3 – This year Indianapolis has home court advantage. They’re 29-11 SU at Hm, winning 72% of their games. Milwaukee is just .500 on the Rd, 20-20.
Neither of them is going to sweep this one.
I expect the Bucks and Pacers to play a tightly contested series, with each team getting at least two wins.
I don’t watch a lot of NBA; I much prefer the college kids. But I’ve seen the Bucks play a few times this year and every time I do I find myself thinking, “Man, this team is over the hill. These guys look old.”
Hopefully, they’re not too old to win at least two in this series.
Bet #2:
La Clippers/Denver Nuggets
LAC -115
LAC started out as Dogs in this series, but the books adjusted, and now they’re anywhere from Ev to -120.
I didn’t do my usual deep dive into stats on this one. For this play I’m adhering to one of my oldest guiding principles when it comes to sports betting – bet AGAINST any team whose locker room is being disrupted by outside nonsense that takes even a sliver of focus off the task at hand – winning.
And in this case, it’s not just minor nonsense, it’s major. Owner Josh Kruenke fired head coach Michael Moore in the last week of the regular season.
You can find Nugget fans divided on both sides of the “right move/wrong move” debate, but there’s no denying that it reeks of desperation. And it absolutely qualifies as a distraction and disruption to the psyche of the team as they enter the playoffs.
Making matters worse, Kruenke didn’t even name a new head coach. Instead, he installed an interim coach (pro sports version of a substitute teacher.)
If he didn’t have a new head coach in mind it means it was a decision made in haste, which is never a good thing. If he was unhappy with Moore’s performance he should have been better prepared when it came to replacing him.
To win in any professional sports league, you have to be 100% focused on the game, even more so during the playoffs when you’re facing the best competition the league has to offer. And in this series, the Nuggets get to face the Red Hot Chili Clippers, a smokin’ 20-9 since the All-Star break.
The Nuggets record during that same time frame?
Just 11-13. LOSER BOYS!
These two split their season series 2-2, the Clippers winning two close ones by 4 and 5 points, the Nuggets winning two blowouts by 22 and 23 points.
Kawhi Leonard didn’t play for LAC in either of the two losses, but he’s back now and apparently healthy after putting in 47 minutes and scoring 33 points vs Golden State in the Clippers final game of the season.
The Nuggets Jamal Murray is also just back from an injury (hamstring inflammation) but hasn’t looked efficient. He averages 21.4 points per game but managed just 15 and 16 in his two games since coming back.
With Murray hobbled, all LAC has to do is stop Jokic. Yes, that’s every team’s game plan to stop Denver, and it’s much easier said than done.
But the Clippers have the fourth best defense in the league and even if the Nuggets do manage to play well and score efficiently against the LA defense they still have to keep up with the Clippers offense, which is one of the best in the league right now.
Denver is Jokic-centric.
The Clippers have depth.
The Clippers have the better defense.
And defense usually wins out in the postseason.
Hopefully, it holds true in this one.