Battling the Books – NBA Play-In Prediction

by R. B. Dressler | Last updated Apr 15, 2025 | betting

Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic

Line: Orlando -5, 217

I have a play on the total in this one.
Let’s look at some numbers.

Season records for Over/Under:
Atlanta
All games: 49-32, 60%
Rd games: 23-18, 56%

Orlando
All games: 35-47, 42%
Hm games: 16-25, 39%

The Hawk’s numbers cry out, “Play the Over”, but the Magic’s numbers shout that down and make a case for the Under.

Head-to-Head games 2024/2025:

Feb 10, Orlando lost at Hm, 112-106
Feb 20, Atlanta lost at Hm, 114-108
Apr 8, Orlando won at Hm on 119-112
Apr 13, Atlanta won at Hm 117-105

EVERY GAME went Over the total the books put on the Play-In game tonight.
Makes the Over seem obvious, doesn’t it?
Maybe too obvious?

How did these two do on totals in the postseason last year?

Atlanta went into the Play-In tournament as the number 10 seed and was eliminated, losing to Chicago,131-116.
The total was 222′, so it sailed over by 24′ points.

Orlando went into the postseason as the number six team, avoiding the Play-In round.
In their postseason opening game, they lost 97-83 to Cleveland. The 180 points scored was 26′ points lower than the total of 206′.
They were eliminated in a seven-game series, and not a single game went Over the 217 posted on this Play-In.

How did the Ov/Un play out in the first four games of the Play-In tournament last season?
I don’t weigh this particular stat very highly but I do like to have as much information as possible when handicapping, so I looked it up.
Last season the totals split, 2 Overs, 2 Unders, but one of the Overs was by one point and could have been an Under depending on when you bought the line.

Here are the Play-In games from the previous three years:
2021/2022 Ov 0-4
2022/2023 Ov 2-2
2023/2024 Ov 2-2
Hard to make a case for the Over with those stats; 67% to the Under.

How is my read on each of these teams when using them in totals this season?
In article picks, I used each of them once, taking the Over both times. I lost both plays.
In forum picks I used Atlanta in an Under once and lost, and used Orlando three times, split two Overs and won the only time I used them in an Under.

Orlando has the number one scoring defense in the league, giving up just 105 PPG overall and just 103 PPG at Hm.
But that’s offset by Atlanta’s number five scoring offense in the league.
They average 118 PPG on the road.

Though Orlando has the number one defense at 105 PPG, in their four games against Atlanta they gave up 112, 114, 119, and 117 for an average of 115.5 PPG, 10 points above their season average.

The Orlando offense is ranked near the bottom of the league, scoring just 105 PPG.
But that’s offset by Atlanta’s defense, ranked 26th, allowing an average of 119 PPG.
And in their four games this year Orlando scored has scored 106, 114 112, and 117 for an average of 112, seven points better than their average output on offense.

What do I have when looking at my own personal handicapping models for this game?
Last month, with the postseason approaching, I tightened the qualifying parameters on my top play for picking totals.
The result?
In the final weeks of the season, I had 14 games that qualified.
The overall record is 10-4; Ov 7-3, Un 3-1.
None of these qualifying games had Atlanta.
Two had Orlando qualifying for an Over.
One game went Over; one stayed Under.
BOTH Play-In games tonight qualify for the Over.

This game will come down to who forces their will on their opponent and gets the pace they desire. Will it be fast paced Atlanta or the slower paced defensive-minded Magic?

A lot of numbers, a lot to digest.
As usual you can make a case either way, Over or Under. Finding the winner is a matter of correctly deciding which of the stats and numbers will determine tonight’s outcome.

Here’s where I made my decision: the stats I weighed the heaviest and deemed most relevant. Last year, Orlando faced Cleveland in the playoffs. Coming into that series, Cleveland’s games averaged 223 PPG.
Orlando’s games averaged 219.
That’s an average of 221 PPG.
Here’s what they scored game by game:
180, 182, 204, 202, 207, 199, 200.
Here’s the point differentials between their season average and their actual scores, game by game:
41, 39, 17, 19, 14, 22, 21.
Every game was double-digits fewer than their regular season average.
Four of the games were at least 20 points fewer than their regular season average.
Defenses tighten up in the postseason.

If you’re wondering if the low scores were possibly because Cleveland’s offense last year wasn’t as good as Atlanta’s offense is this year, here are the numbers:
Cleveland averaged 112.6 PPG.
Atlanta averaged 116 this year. Slim difference.
Orlando’s defense averaged 208.5 PPG last year. They’re even better this year, 205 PPG, and just 203 when they’re at home like in this game.

The chemistry between these two teams in the regular season points to an Over.
But it’s the postseason now, and league-based numbers point to the Under, as do Orlando’s postseason stats.

I’m taking the Under.

When to Buy Recommendation
This line opened 216′.
It was 217/217′ yesterday when I started writing this article.
This morning it was at 218, right now it’s 219.
Looks like late money is coming on the Over in this one, which is not surprising based on head-to-head play (all four times they met this season went Over the number on this game) and recent play (10 of Atlanta’s last 10 games have gone Over the total on this one, four of Orlando’s 10, for a combined 14 of 20.)
The line’s moving in my favor so I’m going to wait a little longer before I buy it. (I just saw the first 219′ show up on the board.)

My play:

Atl/Orl Un (wait to buy)
NBA Reg Season Record: 9-10
(Last week’s win with San Antonio in my Sunday article is not counted here. I was late getting my article submitted in time to have it published early in the day, so I posted it in the forum, too, giving bettors plenty of time to read it and get a bet in if they’d like. It will be accounted for in my forum record.)