Battling the Books – June 9th

♫My name is Luka
I need more than nine rebounds♪♪

Let’s explore some concepts of simple math and common sense as related to the sport of basketball: Three-point shots have a higher rate of failure than two-point shots.
Therefore . . .
Teams that shoot a lot of three-point shots provide their opponent with an increased number of rebound possibilities.
Consequently …
A team that shoots the MOST three-pointers in the league is a good team to get rebounds against.
Now, let’s explore some concepts of simple math and common sense as related to betting on the sport of basketball: Boston shoots more 3-pointers than anyone in the NBA.
Luka Doncic averages 9.2 rebounds per game against ALL teams.
The books have hung a 9′ on Ov/Un rebounds for Luca in game two, against a team who shoots more three-pointers than any other team in the league, thus providing him an increase in potential for rebounds.

See where I’m going with this?
No? Allow me to continue. Luka has had ten or more rebounds in 12 of 18 (67%) games during the playoffs. Luka has had ten or more rebounds in 3 of 5 (60%) games off of a loss this playoff season (like today’s spot.)

Want more?

Here’s Luka’s rebound stats in his three games vs Boston this season:
1/22 (H): Defensive rebounds 13, Offensive 5
3/1 (A): Defensive rebounds 9 Offensive 3
6/6 (H): Defensive rebounds 10, Offensive 0

We’re looking at 18, 12, and 10 total rebounds.

We’re looking at an average of 13.3 per game.

We’re looking at two of three games where his defensive rebounds alone gets us a win at 9′.
And the third game missed by just one but had three offensive rebounds putting it Over 9′ too.

Even if Luka doesn’t hit this number for me today, I’ll likely come right back with it in the next game when they return to Dallas. The number will be higher, but not much, and the odds are heavily in my favor that he won’t fall short of 10 rebounds two games in a row. (It’ll help if the Mavs stay competitive tonight so Doncic plays his normal minutes and doesn’t find himself on the bench late in the fourth quarter like in game one’s Boston blowout.)

Recap: 2-1
Record: 6-4
UFL (2-2)
WNBA (*3-2)
NBA (1-0; 0-0 on prop bets)
*Correction: yesterday, I posted my WNBA record as 3-2; it was 3-1.

Review:
Bang! Zoom!
THAT’S how I like to spend my Saturday.
The Connecticut Sun burned off a little bit of my bankroll but the Birmingham Stallions executed as expected in a crazy game that saw six turnovers in the third quarter alone and brought home two units.

No, that’s not a typo – six turnovers in one quarter!
(So yes, I did a LOT of yelling/cursing at my TV. And was loving every minute of it.)I was hoping to recoup one of the two units I was down in the UFL but got ’em both back.
So going into today’s play I’m sharing picks in three sports here and don’t have a losing record in any of them.
And for a moment everything is right with the world. Treasure small victories when you can.

Quote of the day:

Birmingham head coach Skip Holtz, to his offense, as they came to the sidelines after taking three straight penalties and found themselves in a fourth and 37 – “I don’t have a play to call for 3rd and 37, guys.”

Today’s play:

Doncic rebounds Over 9′
(Bovada is offering a great price on this right now at -105!)