Battling the Books, June 6
SIZE Matters!
It’s foolish (not to mention amateurish) to greatly vary the standard dollar amount of your betting unit. This goes back to the 54% I keep mentioning – it’s impossible for most bettors to maintain that level and be profitable betting like-sized units. When a bettor doubles and triples his bet size on games that he perceives to be stronger than others he’s asking for trouble.
I see it all the time. A guy makes three bets. On two of them he lays $110 to win $100. On one of them he lays $220 to win $200 because he perceives it to be his ‘’Best Bet” of the day. He wins the two smaller bets and loses the larger bet. On a day when he goes 2-1 and should have netted a profit he loses money. Because he varied the size of his betting unit.
And that’s a mild example. I’ve seen guys increase their betting unit by five and ten times more than their standard unit. It’s a recipe for disaster.
Don’t vary your bet size.
Take a day off once in a while.
Don’t bet too many games each day. Pick your spots wisely.
MAINTAIN A DATABASE OR LOGBOOK TRACKING YOUR PLAY (this is the MOST important advice I can give anyone trying to Beat the Books. I’ll have more on this topic in an upcoming column.)
Those are just some of the basics that will improve your bottom line.
Betting Record
Recap: 1-0
Record: 3-2 (UFL 0-2) (WNBA 3-0)
Review: Vegas covers the-8′ in a game that was ugly to watch. The Aces led by as many as 19 but let the Wings get back to within 3, before putting them away by 14 points.
During the comeback by Dallas the Aces had shot clock violations on TWO straight possessions!
Inexcusable for a professional team, especially one of their quality. Like I said, a hard game to watch but a satisfying ending.
NEXT!
I have two situations that qualify for plays today in the WNBA.
Unfortunately neither of them has a record with an edge I can use to play ON or AGAINST.
Fortunately the big boys are back on the card tonight so I’m turning to the NBA for my play today.
NBA Pick
The question for tonight’s contest is rest or rust?
The Celtics haven’t played a game since finishing off Indiana on Monday, May 27th, ten days ago.
So, does this benefit or hurt them?
I did a look back on recent championship series showing four similar situations.
Here are the teams, the year. and the game one results:
- SA, 2013, win by 4 points on the road
- GS, 2017, win by 22 at home
- GS, 2019, lose by 9 on the road
- Den, 2023, win by 11 at home
Only one loss in the four games.
Two of three won by enough to cover tonight’s number.
The lone game that didn’t was a road game.
In game ones during the playoffs Boston has wins by 20, 25, and 5, an average of 16.6
With a two game sweep in the regular season, by 9 points in Dallas and a whopping 28 at home (for an avg. of 18.5) I’ll lay the points with the Celtics tonight.
Bos -6′
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