Battling the Books, June 5

Rolling the Dice with Vegas

With only two games on the card it’s slim pickens tonight.
Fortunately, one of my handicapping methods kicked out a play on the Dallas Wings. So I’m on the Aces. Why? Read on.

The Aces have ruled the roost for the past two years, winning the WNBA Championship in 2022 and 2023. And they’re the odds on favorite to go for the three-peat this season, returning with their roster intact minus the retired Candace Parker.

Vegas is off to a good start at 4-2, with a solid average margin of victory of 12 points.

Tonight, they’re on the road laying 8′ to the Dallas Wings.
Dallas is just 3-4 on the season and off losses in their last two games.

Vegas is also off a loss, and I like them in this spot. After their other loss this season, they rebounded with a 19-point win over the Indiana Caitlins.

Last year, the Aces won three of four regular-season meetings with the Wings (average margin of victory 13 points) and then swept Dallas three games to none in the postseason (average margin of victory 8 points), giving them the win in six of their last seven meetings.

The Books hung a tough number on tonight’s game at Vegas -8′, but Dallas qualifies for one of my situational plays that has an overall record of 4-6 and just 1-3 on Hm teams like Dallas is in this contest. I’ll ride that 1-3  Fade and take the Aces.

Recap: 2-0
Record: 2-2
Action bets UFL 0-2, ( Favs 0-1, Pick ’em 0-1)
WNBA 2-0 (Favs 1-0, Unders 1-0)Review:
Contrary to the title of yesterday’s column, it turns out I am into the Mystics.
Washington (now 0-9) rewarded my confidence in their ability to continue to stink by scoring just 59 points. This was a whopping 15 points under their already league-low 74 PPG and helped the total stay Under by 17 points.

After the Washington game ended I checked on my upcoming Seattle bet at -7′ and got bad news. The Storm’s opening -8 was now at -5, which could only mean one of two things: either Nneke Ogwumike (18.7 PPG) or Jewel Lloyd (19.8 PPG) was out.
I checked the wires and saw that Ogwumike injured her eye during the afternoon practice session and would not play.
Trouble? Nah.
No Ogwike, no problem.
As the saying goes, “Next man up” (or next woman in this case.)
Seattle wins 80-62, easily covering the -7′.The lesson therein? Don’t overreact to injuries!

Today’s play:
Las Vegas -8′

Later this week: Why it’s Foolish to  Vary the Size of Your Wagering Dollar Amount.