Battling the Books | June 4
(NOT) Into the Mystics
I listened to the great Van Morrison’s “Into the Mystic” a few times last week and thought it fit nicely as a title for today’s column based on one of my plays today.
Since I’m all about giving advice culled from my many years of experience as a bettor and a sports book manager, I offer these wise words: You don’t have to bet every day.
It’s good to take a step back every once in a while to refresh your brain batteries.
And a particularly good time to take a mental break from the daily grind of your Battle with the Books is after you’ve taken a couple of losses (like I had over the weekend with the UFL.)
So, I took yesterday off. It was an easy decision since there were no games for me to handicap. The NBA and WNBA had the day off.
And I don’t bet on baseball.
Why don’t I bet on baseball?
It bores me.
Even when I place a rooting interest/TV money bet on a game, I find myself channel-flipping mid-inning to find something that doesn’t put me to sleep.
Another reason I don’t bet on MLB is that while running the sports book, I learned that baseball is the sport that sees batters lose their bankroll more than any other sport.
After losing on football and basketball, new bettors look at baseball and think, “What? I just have to pick the straight-up winner? I don’t have to worry about point spreads anymore? This is going to be E-A-S-Y!”
It’s not. Faaaar from it.
Remember – to win; a bettor has to hit 52.4% of his plays at standard odds of -110.
When the juice goes up to -120 and higher that 52.4% also has to go up.
And 98% of bettors can’t hit 52.4%.
‘Nuff said.
Note: You can lower your breakeven percentage by betting at reduced odds.
Picks Record
Recap: 0-1
Record: Regular plays 0-0, TV 0-2, UFL 0-2
Review: A two-point loss with just over 1 minute left on Saturday, a one-point loss with just over 2 minutes left on Sunday.
&#%!@”?!! (That is what is known as “grawlix” – a polite way of cursing in print. See – read my column, and you’ll learn something new every day.)
Today’s picks
I employ four different methods to ‘cap basketball for sides, three for totals. In another column this week I’ll get into more detail on them. More than just an explanation though, it will also serve to give new bettors, and those who are struggling to make a profit, ways to think outside the box when doing their own work.
The WNBA season is just two weeks old so I don’t have a lot of data to use. Because of this, for the rest of June I’ll mostly play Actions bets, small dollar wagers, until I get some more data to use. My ‘capping is based on multiple situations teams are in, not the standard way most people use to try and find a winner.
Seattle faces Phoenix at Hm tonight where they are 2-1 SU but just 1-2 ATS.
Phoenix is just 1-4 on the Rd, but 3-2 ATS.
Those stats favor Phoenix but I’m on Seattle.
Why?
Because I prefer going contrarian.
Besides, in ANY game any ‘capper can find stats supporting an opinion on either side of a game.
But my main reason for riding with the Storm is my charts show a play that says the Mercury should be favored in this game. And that method has a losing record.
Tonight we have a bit of an oddity, the winless Washington Mystics (0-8) facing the undefeated Connecticut Sun (8-0.)
One reason Wash is winless is because they’re scoring a league low 74 (PPG)pts per game.
One reason Conn is undefeated is because they have the league’s top D, allowing just 70 PPG.
Those two stats point me to an Under here.
And one of my methods for finding totals to play has this game going Over.
But that play has a record of 0-2.
Sea -7′
Wash/Con Un 152′
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