Battling the Books | June 30

Not So Silly Superstitions

In my article on June 11, I talked about tracking your play and using it in your handicapping.

Then in a follow-up article from June 23 I outlined ways to “Dig Deeper” to help you find subsets within your plays to help you improve your winning percentage. These subsets include Home/Away, Fav/Dog, and point differentials for just a few examples.
Today I’ll give you one more – a break down by teams.

All of the methods I track are league wide stats, they’re not specific to any team.

For example I have two different systems I use to identify Wrong Favs (three really, but one of them has only given me three plays all year long.) The records I have for those two plays are for all teams in the league.
But within those records I can track another subsystem – how certain teams perform when they’re in that particular play.

This subset comes to mind because Friday night I took a loss with the Connecticut Sun. And I know that earlier this year I used the Sun at home vs the New York Liberty, and I lost that one too. Naturally this makes me wonder – what is my record when I use I use Connecticut in each of the two WF systems?

I don’t know the answer.
But I do know what handicapping homework I’ll be doing this week.
And I know I won’t be betting on Connecticut as a WF until I know what their record is in both of my WF systems.

Recap: 0-1
Record: 15-12

Review: As noted in the write-up on my last play, I mentioned I have a silly, stupid superstition that tells me “Don’t bet a play that fits a system today after you had a chance to play it the previous day but laid off of it, and it won.”
Turns out it’s not such a silly, stupid superstition after all as I played 14-3 Connecticut in a system I passed on the day before with Seattle that won, and the Sun proved my superstition to be correct as they lost SU by 4 points as a -9′ point favorite to 6-9 Atlanta.
So, note to self, next time . . .

Overall for June I’m doing okay at 15-12, 55%, still in the profit zone.
But after dropping two in a row I’m now just one game above .500 with my WNBA play.
My updated WNBA breakdown is:
9-8 overall
4-6 on Favs, 1-1 on Dogs
Ov 2-0
Un 2-1

The problem category is Favs at 4-6.
But that category is only two games below .500, so it’s too early to abandon them.

Today’s plays:

I have two plays that fit my systems today.
My main method for handicapping Wrong Favorites has the Chicago Sky favored at home against the Minnesota Lynx.
League-wise this play is 6-10 overall, a 62% Fade.
Digging into a subset of Home/Away, Hm teams are just 2-4, 67% a Fade.
Digging even deeper into how each particular team performs in this play, Chicago is 1-2 as the WF to play AGAINST and Minnesota is 1-0 as a team to play ON. Gotta like those numbers.

After winning the Commissioner’s Cup at New York versus the Liberty, each Lynx player won a bonus of $40,000. Apparently Minnesota did a little too much celebrating after their win because in their next game the 13-3 Lynx went into 3-14 Dallas and lost SU to the team tied for the worst record in the league.
As a handicapper I like that loss as it means Minnesota will be much more focused when they take on the 6-10 Chicago Sky today.

Chicago is just 3-6 ATS at Hm, while Minnesota is 6-2 ATS on the Rd, so those numbers are also in my favor.

My other play is from one of the three systems I use to find totals to bet on, based on a point differential of X between my number and the number the books are offering.
My number says the Indianapolis game at Phoenix stays Under 174.
The overall record on totals for this play is just 2-3. Unders are 0-2, and one of those losses came with Indy and the other came with Phoenix, so even though this play doesn’t come up too often (just five games qualifying so far this season) I have to like the stats I do have.

Since Brittney Griner has returned from her recent injury the Phoenix Mercury offense is averaging 90 PPG and today they get Indy, the worst defense in the league.
Missed out on the best number here as it opened 172′ but I’ll still take it at 174.

Min -7
Indy/Phx Ov 174
Open bet, college football, Oklahoma -40′.
Correction: in my article earlier this week I mentioned that 57% is the number needed to maintain a profit in sports betting. That was supposed to read 54%.

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