Battling the Books | June 27

The Sun Goes Down on Washington

No, I’m not talking about tonight’s presidential debate. I’m talking about the WNBA’s number one defense, the 13-3 Connecticut Sun, storming into Washington to put a beat down on the 4-13 Mystics.
More on that later, but first a recap, review, and breakdown of my WNBA play this season.

Recap: 1-1
Record: 15-10

Review: On my last plays I took a loss with New York -5′ as they got beat SU by Minnesota, 94-89, and got an easy win on Over 164 as it cleared the bar by 19 points.I had a good read on the total, so what the hell happened to my pick on NY -5′?
Let’s look at their score by quarters.
Which of these things is not like the other:
27, 23, 10, 29.
They lost the game in that 10-point third quarter.
But the box score stats show where they really lost.
They had 21 turnovers.
That’s five less possessions for them per quarter, and five more possessions for their opponent. Nobody can win when you turn the ball over and give your an opponent advantage like that.
So, a split on the night, 1-1.
I’ll take that any day of the week. I had some action, I had some fun, and no real damage to my bankroll.

I’m sitting at 15-10, 60% for the month of June, with only four days left. Unless I screw up very badly I’m going to close June out with a profit.
Which brings us to today’s lesson/recommendation – Work in windows.
By “working in windows” I mean working within a set time frame. Set goals within a certain parameter and work to hit those goals.

On my first real job after high school I received a paycheck once a month. It taught me the importance of setting a budget and adhering to it. That lesson carries over into my Battle with the Books. Yes I keep an overall record, but I still think in terms of budgeting and setting goals, such as weekly or monthly.
Right now I’m looking at monthly goals but as soon as football starts I try to work within weekly goals, just like when I was playing with local bookies back in New Jersey.
The week starts on Monday, and ends on Sunday. On Fridays you either paid or collected for the previous week.

With just four days left in June I’ll have some decisions to make. Do I play all WNBA spots that qualify for one of my systems, or do I play tight and limit my risk?
One thing that can help me make those decisions is a breakdown of my play.
I’ve talked about tracking your play a couple of times during June, and I practice what I preach.
Here’s what I’m looking at going into these final days.
WNBA play:
Overall record: 9-6, 60%.
Sides: 5-6; Favs 4-5, Dogs 1-1
Totals: 4-0; Ov 2-0, Un 2-0

Guess where I’m going to be looking for plays over the next four days.
And how do I know to look at my totals and try to avoid Favs?
Because I track my play.
And you should, too.

The spot I used last time with Minnesota/New York Over is now 4-0. Hopefully, I’ll get a few more of those before the end of June.

I’m good with 60%, anytime, any sport, any season. It’s three points over what I need to show a profit, and it’s what professional bettors strive to maintain. Every one of them that I’ve ever talked to or interviewed said their goal is 55%-59%. Yes, OF COURSE they want over 55%, but they know first hand, from experience, that they can make a living as long as they maintain that 55% or higher.
When you see touts boasting about hitting 65% to 70% or higher, you’re seeing a marketer, not a handicapper. And stay far away from them.
60% is a commendable accomplishment, especially considering it was the first month of the WNBA season, and I had no data to work with. As the season progresses and I have more games tracked I’ll have a better idea of which of my methods are going to be of value betting ON or AGAINST.

Today’s play.

I utilize three different methods to handicap for totals, and I have a game in one of them tonight that calls for the Connecticut/Washington game to go Over.
I don’t get many plays from this one, only three so far this season, and the record is 0-3 (0 -1 on Overs, 0-2 on Unders.)
Until this play wins one I’m going to Fade them.

I also have a subset on the game. When my top method for handicapping totals disagrees with this secondary method that I have going tonight, the main method is correct. Simply put, when my main method calls for an Under in a game that the secondary method has a rare play on the Over, bet ON the main play.

Tonight’s game doesn’t qualify as an Under for my main method because it doesn’t meet the necessary parameters (the differential between my line and the books) but it does say tonight’s game goes Under 152′, opposite what the secondary play says.

Connecticut Rd games are 3-5 to the Under this year, Washington is 5-3 to the Over, no edges there four days rest

The game opened it 153 and there’s still a couple of those available but the common number right now is 152′ so that’s the number I’ll use.

Con/Wash Un 152′