Battling the Books | June 25

Payback Time for the New York Liberty

In honor of the new Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers, here’s my best hockey story.

Years ago, I was comped two tickets to a game at the Meadowlands between the New Jersey Devils and the Pittsburgh Penguins. I was going to take one of my buddies who was a big Pittsburgh fan, but instead I took the girl I was dating at that time.
She told me she’d never been to a hockey game before, never even watched on TV, so she wanted to check one out.

I figured it’d be a waste of a ticket but she was a female, and good looking, so naturally I did what any normal, red-blooded American neanderthal would do – I nixed off my buddy and took her.

We arrived at the arena early, the players were on the ice, warming up. She points to a guy on the Penguins and struggling to pronounce his name she said to me, “What’s that guy’s name? ‘Lemmy-ux?’ ‘Lamooks?’ ”

Properly pronouncing his name, I replied, “That’s Mario Lemieux, he’s one of the best players in the game.”

“Oh,” she said, and went back to glancing around the arena, taking in our surroundings.

A few minutes later, she taps me on the shoulder, points to a guy seated a couple of rows away from us wearing Mario’s jersey, and says excitedly, “Look honey, what a coincidence – that guy’s name is Lemieux, too!”

It was a damn shame.
She might have been a keeper, she checked off most of the boxes. Except that one.

Recap: 0-1
Record: 14-9

Review: It was painful. It was disgusting. It was sickening. It was the kind of game that stays with you hours after the final score is in, the kind of game that makes you want to just throw up your hands and say,
“I QUIT! I need a new hobby. Maybe knitting. Knitting doesn’t seem to be expensive, and it won’t make me want to turn into Elvis and shoot my TV.”

My take on the game had the Chicago Sky winning the game against Indy. I only had to lay -1′. That left only one number that could beat me, “the loneliest number, one.” (Three Dog Night plug there.)

Indy’s up by one at the half, it’s the tight game I expected, and I’m in the hunt for the money.

Third quarter, Indy goes on a 19-2 run and I’m dead in the water.

But…

In the fourth quarter Chicago stages a furious comeback and actually takes the lead by four points with 27 seconds left in the game.

With 18 seconds left they’re only up by one, but Marina Mabrey, the team’s leading scorer, is going to the foul line to shoot two, and I only need one.
I’m going to cover the -1′. Yay me!
But . . . she misses BOTH.
Indy rebounds, shoots, misses, and fouls Chicago.
Too late though, the buzzer sounds, game over.
But…
The refs go to the video monitor to check the clock to see if there’s any time left, while I start saying a Sucker’s Prayer (plug for The Decemberists there.)

The decision is . . . YES!
They’re putting one second back on the clock!
I’m shooting two free throws!
I’m going to win!
But . . . Kamilla Cordoso misses the first.
And . . . Kamilla Cordoso misses the second shot.

FOUR missed free throws in the final 18 seconds.
Game over.
I lose by the hook.
I set a new record for cursing at my TV using ugly slang for “promiscuous” females.
And Mabrey and Cordoso go on my s*it list. Forever.

Today’s play.

With only one game on the card tonight I thought for certain nothing would fit any of the mathematical situations I use to decide if I’m going to bet on a game or not. But I have two spots that qualify, a play ON the Minnesota Lynx +5′ on the road against the New York Liberty, and a play on the Over.

Let’s look at the play ON Minnesota.
Overall this play has a record of 8-12, a solid 60% Fade.
But Minny’s a Road Team and RD teams in this spot are just 6-6, no edge.
But, like I always say, Dig Deeper.
The Dog in these spots is just 4-7, a very nice 63% Fade.

New York has had three tough games against top opponents this year and are 2-1.
All three were RD games.
They beat Connecticut when the Sun were still undefeated at 9-0.
They beat the team that vanquished them in the championship series last year, the Las Vegas Aces.
Their only loss? The Minnesota Lynx.
It was an embarrassing blowout loss by 17 pts, giving New York a little extra incentive to get paybacks at home.

Now let’s look at the total.
My chart has this play on Ov/Un’s at 9-5 overall, 64%.
I like that, but I LOVE this: Overs in this spot are 3-0.

The first meeting this year saw only 151 points scored, 13 fewer than I’ll need tonight, but NY put up just 67 points in that game, hitting only 38% from the field and just 24% from three point range.
That’s a full 21 points fewer than their league leading 88 PPG.
You KNOW they’ll put up better numbers than those at home tonight.

Yes, the Lynx have the No.2 defense in the league, but Conn is the No.1 defense and NY scored 82 vs the Sun.
Right now you can get -5 and 163 at our sponsor Mybookie.
Our sponsor Bovada has it a NY -5′, -115
I know not everyone reading this has an account at Mybookie (but you should!) and can’t take advantage of the best numbers you can get for these plays, so I’ll use the common #’s still available at multiple sites.

NY -5′
Mim/NY Ov 164