Battling the Books | June 23

The Value of Viewing

Handicapping sporting events is simply a matter of examining different factors, weighing them, and deciding which one will be most relevant in the game you’re looking to make a bet on. (That statement makes it sound easy to win at betting on sports, but it’s not. Just ask most people who have ever tried it.)

It’s clear to anyone who follows my Battle with the Books that when it comes to choosing which games I bet on I mostly rely on numbers. But I also mix in another factor, “gut feel,” like I did with my last pick on the Vegas Aces (7-6) to beat Connecticut (13-1.)

And there are other factors that can help you improve your play – such as the experience you gain from watching games on TV.

The deciding factor that made me pull the trigger on the Aces is what I saw in the fourth quarter when the undefeated Sun lost to the Liberty. In crunch time, late in the fourth quarter, in the friendly confines of Mohegan Sun arena and their home fans, Connecticut folded under the pressure.

I remember it well because I took Connecticut in that contest. And I lost. Which is why I always say, “Don’t just dismiss a loss and go on to look for the next game to bet on. Learn something from the loss that you can use in a future pick.”
There’s not always a lesson in a losing, sometimes a lost is just a loss. But sometimes there’s something you need to make a note of for future use.

In a schedule full of wins against teams with losing records, the Liberty game was Connecticut’s biggest game of the season.
And the Sun melted in the heat.
In what was their next biggest game of the season, Friday night, against the only other tough team they faced this season, I anticipated seeing more of the same.
I wouldn’t have known that had I not watched the NY/Con game.
The experience you gain while watching teams play is a valuable tool for handicappers to use.

The extra knowledge acquired from watching games is why I do better in the WNBA than in the NBA. I know I’m the exception to the rule but I’ll choose watching the women’s game over the men’s any day of the week. When I have money on an NBA game I end up channel flipping, looking for something to catch my interest. The men’s game just bores me. Yes, it takes a high tolerance for missed layups, but I’d rather watch the ladies.

Recap: 1-0
Record: 14-8

Review: I took Vegas thinking that Connecticut would collapse in the fourth quarter, but it didn’t come to that. The Aces took the lead in the first quarter and never looked back. They entered the fourth quarter up by 13 and went on to win by 11, laying 5.

NEXT!

Today’s play:

With four games on the schedule today, I figured I’d have a plethora of plays that fit my systems (“Pepe, do you know what a plethora is?”) (I’m guessing only 25% will get that reference, but I’m tossing it in here anyway.) But I only have one, and it has a 3-4 record, so not much of an edge.
But today’s card includes a highly anticipated match, and that’s where I’m going for today’s action.

The Indiana Caitlin’s are visiting the Chicago Thugs, err, I mean the Chicago Sky. Even many non-fans are aware of the much publicized, much written about problems between Caitlin Clark and certain players in the league who take cheap shots and hard fouls on her.
Superstars such as LeBron James and Serena Williams have come out chastising the league for allowing the situation to degrade to the point it’s now at.

Chief among the culprits is Chicago’s Chennedy Carter. She’s always been a black eye for the league. She got kicked off her first team, Atlanta, for “conduct detrimental to the team,” which was a nice way of saying she had major attitude problems. She even picked fights with her own teammates.

She got traded to the LA Sparks where she was benched for “poor conduct” (Gee, who’d have figured?) before being released.

She spent last year out of the league before Chicago decided to bring her in this year and give her another chance. And she’s making headlines again, for being a thug again.

After knocking Clark to the floor, the league admitted it was a flagrant foul but refused to fine Carter, and her coaches, teammates, and other players around the league jumped to defend her.
Sports writers and superstars like James and Williams have come out publicly, chastizing the players for their jealousy, and the league for not defending Clark.

This brings us to today’s game and all the hype surrounding it. It’s why ESPN chose the game between two teams with losing records, Indiana (7-10) and Chicago (5-9), for national coverage over the prime matchup of the day between Connecticut and Seattle.

Looking at the numbers:
Indy is 2-0 versus Chicago this year. Both were home games for Indy. They won by one point in the first game and eight points in the second.
Check the box next to “revenge” for Chicago.

Indy is on a five-game winning streak while Chicago has dropped four of their last five.
But like I always say dig deeper.
Four of Indy’s five wins have come against Atlanta (6-3) and Washington (3-13.)
Color me unimpressed.

With the small spread of -1′, ATS records aren’t much of a factor. SU Chicago is 2-5 at home, while Indy 3-6 is on the road. No edge either way.

There’s a lot of support for Indy today, a lot of people picking them to win, and much of it is based on sympathy for Caitlin.
But this is the real world, and sympathy ain’t worth squat when it comes to handicapping.

I’ll lay the small spread with the home team.

Chicago -1′