Battling the Books | June 21

Improve Your Win % Using Subsets

Here’s some food for thought for fledgling handicappers (fledgling??!! What are we – ducks?) to help you think outside the box and improve your overall W percentage.

On Wednesday I had six bets I could make based on plays culled from my handicapping methods.
I used three of the six.
How did I choose which of the three I would play?
Records of the Subsets I track.

Handicapping is like mining for gold. To find that nugget sometimes you have to dig deeper.
Here’s an example of what I mean:

Team A is playing team B, and is a Home Fav -3. My handicapping says that A is a WF (Wrong Favorite.) I have Team B -4.
In my logbook I chart the date, the teams, my numbers, and the spread the books are offering.
I check the record for this particular play and I see that WF’s are 6-12, so I have a solid 67% Fade against team A.

But . . . Dig Deeper.
I have subsets for this play, such as, What is the record for when the WF is at home?

I check my stats and I see that they’re 4-4, so there is no edge in Fading this play when it’s a Hm team. But, conversely, that tells me it’s a very solid 2-8, 80% Fade when it’s a Rd team.

And I dig into even deeper subsets.
For example, I have two different methods I use to identify WF’s. Comparing these two methods gives me subsets such as, “What is the record for when both methods kick out the same team as a wrong favorite?

Another subset I track employs point differentials. Let’s say I have Team A identified as a Wrong Fav, -3. My numbers show Team B should be a -5 Fav, giving me an eight point differential. Before I decide to put money on the game I check my charts to see What is the record for this play when I have a point differential of five or >? Ten or >? (I don’t track every number for differentials, just 5 and 10 in basketball. For football I use 7, 10, and 14.)

Yes, it seems like a lot of stat work but it’s not work at all if you enjoy it. And I do.
It also helps me win more, which I also enjoy.

In an upcoming article I’ll include a picture of a page from my log book to make it easier to see how I track data.
In the meantime, remember this:
The more subsets you have, the more information you have to help you see where you have a higher percentage of winning your bets. So Dig Deeper!

Recap: 3-0
Record: 13-8

Review: Yes, I had really solid numbers going against Vegas. But I knew that after losing the previous game to their rivals (the NY Liberty) the Aces were going to be as hungry as a member of the Donner party.
On Sunday I went against my numbers for the Under and lost taking the Over in the UFL championship game. I thought of that Wednesday as I was deciding to buck the numbers I had on Vegas, numbers that clearly pointed to taking Seattle. But sometimes you ride your stats, sometimes you ride your gut. In this game my gut said “Vegas, Baby!” And laying 5 they won by 11.

NEXT!

Today’s play:

Great matchup tonight, first place, 13-1 Connecticut vs the defending champion 7-6 Vegas Aces.
with only 15 games played in the season I don’t have a lot of data to work with yet, and the data I do have has conflicting numbers where I can make a case for either team. So just like my last pick with Vegas I’m going with my gut, triggered by three factors.

First, yes, Vegas has started slowly, but all star Chelsea Gray returned last game and gave the team and the crowd (standing ovation) a huge boost, and they beat Seattle by 11.

Second, Connecticut’s 13 wins came against only two teams with a winning record, and one was against a roster depleted Phoenix Mercury missing their Star center Brittney Griner.

Third, in their biggest game of the year, against second place New York, the Sun lost at home by seven points. In this, their second big test of the year I’m betting they fail again.

Las Vegas – 5
(WAIT TO BUY THIS. Part of winning is smart line shopping, and buying at the right time is crucial. This line opened at -6 and I see -5 showing now.

The -6 the books put out was too high on a Connecticut team that’s 5-0 SU on the road getting points against a Vegas team that’s just 2-6 ATS at home, which is why the line is coming down. Wait a little longer, you might get -4’ at tip off.