Battling the Books – June 2
Yesterday I mentioned that there are three kinds of fun you can have betting on sports.
First – Handicapping
One of my favorite parts of the day is sitting poolside in the morning sun, with my laptop, my notebooks, and my different color pens (more on the pens in a future column), looking over the day’s card, hunting for a game that fits the parameters necessary for it to qualify as a play in one of the situational spots I ‘cap to make my bets.
Sports betting (for those who aren’t foolish enough to try to make a living at it) is a hobby, something I do for fun, just like fishing, playing bass guitar, or gynecology. (Note to self – in deference to my editor and making his life easier, when doing the final rewrite on this column remember to go back and remove “gynecology” and replace it with “golf.”)
Second – Winning
It’s not just the financial aspect of increasing your bankroll, it’s the satisfaction that comes with beating the books at their own game. It’s the adrenaline-shot rush you get when your team kicks a game-winning field goal as the last few seconds tick off the game clock.
Third – Losing
Yes, sometimes even losing can be fun.
You don’t have to win every time for golf to be fun, or tennis, or bowling, or however you get your kicks. You can’t win every time, sometimes simply participating is the fun.
Same with sports betting.
Losing a bet is not a lot of fun, and it’s not fun that I want to have too often, but I like betting on a game and watching it on TV.
I like yelling at my TV.
I find it entertaining and stress relieving.
(My neighbors find it entertaining too. They say they can always tell if I have a small bet or a large bet on a game by the quantity and volume of the cursing they hear coming from my house.)
Let’s hope that with today’s pick we have the second kind of fun, and not the third.
Pick Record
- TV picks: 0-1 (UFL 0-1)
- Regular: 0-0
Review: I took St Louis yesterday because they were undefeated at home and only laying three points.
They are still undefeated.
But they won by one.
Ugh.
They blew the cover with just 1:56 left on the clock.
Double ugh.
And I had an interception pick six called back with just twenty seconds left.
Triple ugh!!!
And THAT is a perfect example of why I use smaller units when I’m betting on a game just because it’s on TV.
Today’s Plays:
Because the UFL is in its first season I have no database of history to use for handicapping. So I came up with a unique way of handicapping the new league based on the simple concept that books don’t stay profitable by paying people.
I take a consensus of 13 different handicappers and look for contrarian picks to go against their selections.
Going into this final week of the season my charts show that any time there’s a unanimous consensus on one team, the handicappers win just 25% of their picks. That’s a 75% Fade.
Today they’re unanimous on Arlington, so . . .
DC opened at -2’and is now all the way down to pick ‘em, which means that the handicappers aren’t the only ones who love the Renegades today. The public is all over Arlington, too.
And I always prefer to go against Joe Public.
Also doesn’t hurt that the Renegades are winless on the road.
UFL ATS Pick
I’m on DC, pick ’em, TV wager.