Battling the Books | June 18th

Revisiting Goals

And so we come to the end of the inaugural season of the UFL, as well as the 78th season of the NBA.

I went 3-3 on the UFL. Lost a little juice.
I went 3-1 on the NBA. Banked a little cash.
How does this fit in with my goals as stated in column number one, dated June 1?

Goal number one is “Do no harm to my bankroll.”
Mission accomplished in both sports.

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Yes, I lost a small amount of juice on UFL, but remember what I keep saying – bet on sports for entertainment value, NOT to make a living at it.

The miniscule amount of juice lost with a 3-3 record on my Action-size bets is far less than any other form of entertainment I would normally seek.
Dinner for two with a nice bottle of wine would cost about five times more than the juice for three UFL losses. Hell, you can’t even go to the movies for the amount I lost and I got a hell of a lot more fun and entertainment value for my dollar on those six UFL games than I would at any remake that Hollywood would regurgitate these days.

For the NBA, I hit goals one and two:
“No harm to my bankroll” and “Finish with a Profit – ANY Profit.”

And, just as important, I had fun matching wits with the books and yelling at my TV. So in my Battle with the Books for these two sports I came out on top.

Recap: 1-1
Record: 10-7
Review:

Birmingham wins 25-0.
Hit with the Stallions -3’, missed with Over 41.

I had a good read on the much vaunted advantage for the San Antonio defense when I declared it negligible. I had a good read on the correct angle for bettors to exploit, the Birmingham offense, as well as the coaching edge with Holtz.
I want to look back in hindsight and say I had a bad call on going against my stat’s 67% edge for the Under, but I can’t. I’ll almost always lean towards going against heavily lopsided public perception.

Today’s play:

I have one of my WNBA systems in play today that says take the Phoenix Mercury
It has a record of 5-6, not much of an edge, but broken down into a H/A subset it’s just 1-4 at Hm, making Phoenix solid Fade material tonight (in an upcoming column I’ll provide details on how YOU can develop and use subsets in your handicapping, to help raise your Win percentage.)

The Connecticut Sun are sitting at the top of the WNBA standings, but just barely as NY is right behind them. And with a 7 point win over the Sun at Connecticut earlier this season it seems NY is the cream of the crop right now. So I’m taking the best team in the league, on an eight game W streak, laying a few points on the Rd, where they’re 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS. Phoenix is 5-2 ATS at home, so somebody’s 5-2 is going to take a hit tonight. I’m betting it’s the Mercury.

NY Liberty -5