Battling the Books | June 16

Bucking the Brahmas and Riding with the Stallions

Today, we come to the end of the inaugural season of the UFL, the merger of the XFL and USFL. I’m sitting at 2-2 for UFL picks here. I can’t leave it at .500 so this game is where I’m going for my action today.

Throughout the UFL season, I’ve used a different handicapping method. Since it was a new league and I had no database of history and stats to rely on I decided to make my plays based on the fact that the books don’t stay in business by paying everybody.
So, I tracked the play of various handicappers to go against their consensus picks.

Here’s today’s consensus numbers:
Birm 3, SA 7
Ov 2, Un 7

Here’s what my data tells me:
When the consensus on sides has a differential of 4 or > the record is 10-9.
When the consensus on totals has a differential of 3 or > the record is 8-4.

SA has four more picks than Birmingham.
The Under has five more picks than the Over.
Slight edge SA, big edge for the Under.
So I’m taking Birmingham and the Over.

Why am I going against my own numbers?

First, like I said last week when the money is on the table in the big games, ride with the two-time defending champions, the Birmingham Stallions.

Second, everyone who’s taking SA talks about the outstanding defense of the Brahmas and their ability to get to the quarterback. A look at the stats shows SA has 32 sacks but Birmingham is right behind them with 29.
And PPG?
Yes, again, the SA defense has an edge at 15.3.
But also again, Birm is right behind them at 18.

In reality SA only has a very slight edge on defense.
What about offense?
A clear edge for Birm with 26.5 PPG and just 19 for SA.

The stat most ‘cappers are pointing to is the score from their only meeting this year when the Brahmas tagged the Stallions with their only loss of the season, 18-9. And that is a troublesome stat.
But I’m banking on the fact that Skip Holtz is a better Coach than Wade Phillips and is well prepared to make the adjustments after studying game film of their first meeting.
I base that on the fact that Skip is 31-4 in spring football. The guy has won 88% of his games!
With a small spread like today, I’ll ride with those numbers.

As for the total, yes I’m bucking a 67% stat as noted above with the 8-4 record. But I’m sticking with my original principle – books don’t stay in business by paying everybody, and everyone I’ve spoken to or read their picks and analysis is on the Under.
Which tells me . . .

Plays:
Birm -3′
Birm Ov 41
Recap: 1-0
Record: 9-6
Review: Hit with New York at Las Vegas yesterday as the +2 Rd’ Dogs won SU by 8. One of the best WNBA games I’ve watched all year, not because I banked a unit but because it was a well played game. My major concern going into the game was that the 6-5 Aces were playing down to their competition, and a battle against New York would have them playing the same high-quality balling that we’ve seen from them over the last two years. But they lost three out of four quarters and were fighting hard just to be competitive. There’s clearly something wrong with Vegas at this point in time, and I’ll look to exploit that over the next week or two before they straighten things out, IF they turn it around.