Battling the Books – June 15

The Exception to the Rule of Not Varying Your Bet Size

As mentioned in previous columns, I am a strong proponent of not varying the size of your betting unit in order to help you stay above the 54% target range. With two exceptions:

First, I don’t play the same size unit for different sports. For example, my college football unit is much larger than my NBA unit.

Second, I use two standard bet sizes. I have
Regular bets (investment plays) and I have Action bets for when I just want to have rooting action on a game I’m going to watch on TV.

Why do I use different sizes for Regular bets and Action bets?
Because I have a much higher winning percentage on regular bets, when I use one of my handicapping systems/methods.
How do I know my regular bets have a higher winning percentage?
Because I chart my plays and keep a log book of them. Do you???
(If not, please refer to my column dated June 11.)

Be sure to check back on Sunday or Monday for a column containing my first investment bet of the year. It’s a week one college football spot that has a 67% win percentage over the past four seasons, 72% over the last two years.

Today, I have a WNBA game that fits one of my systems. It’s slightly on the right side of the ledger at 4-3. It’s a revenge spot for the New York Liberty.

Last year, New York lost in the championship series to the Las Vegas Aces.
This year, New York has picked up right where they left off last season. They have the second best record in the league at 7-1. They have the third best PPG offense and the second best defense.

The Aces have stumbled out of the gate. They’re just 6-5 and all six of those wins have come against teams with losing records. The offense is still playing top notch, it’s the defense that has fallen, only Phoenix, Dallas and Indy have surrendered more PPG.

Vegas is a pitiful 1-4 ATS at home, while New York is a solid 5-1 SU on the road and 4-2 ATS.

Revenge is NOT a reason for a bettor to place a wager but it’s a hell of a motivator for New York today in this spot.

Give me Liberty or give me death! (Well, not death really, and hopefully not a lost unit for my bankroll either.)

NY +2’

Recap: 0-1 (missed with Boston yesterday; REALLY missed with Boston as they lost by 38 points!)
Record: 8-6 (all action size bets)
UFL (2-2)
WNBA (3-3)
NBA (3-1; 1-1 on Favs, 2-0 on prop bets)