Battling the Books – June 14

Like Frampton, Lively Comes Alive

Sometimes the books hang a bad number on a game or prop. The experience and knowledge I gathered from my years as a Sports Book Director/oddsmaker in Vegas really comes in handy when I’m trying to spot one.
Like with my last bet/analysis.
From my previous column, recommending a bet on Lively scoring Over 13’ points and rebounds in game three:

“In seven postseason games at home Lively has averaged 9.7 points and 7 rebounds, a combined 16.7, which is a solid 3 points over the number the books hung on him tonight.
In those seven games he’s covered tonight’s number five of seven times, 71%.”

Lively’s game three stat line?
13 rebounds and 11 points.
A combined 24.
He cleared the 13’ I (and anyone who was riding with me) needed by 10’ points and almost covered the number with his rebounds alone.

NEXT!

Sometimes you have to be careful not to overthink your bets. Sometimes you just have to go with the obvious.

Tonight, Boston faces Dallas up 3-0 in the championship series.

The question is – fight or fold?

Will Dallas, a team facing historically unbeatable odds (no NBA team has ever come back to win the championship series after being down 0-3) put forth the maximum effort to avoid the embarrassment of a sweep, or will they quit knowing they have no chance?

But there’s another side to that coin. What kind of effort can we expect from Boston?

There’s a school of thought that says Boston may come out like slackers tonight because they want the series to go back to Boston so they can win the title in front of their home fans.
I don’t buy into that theory.
These are professional athletes.
They want to win ALL the time.
And when you have an opponent about to go down for the count you don’t let up on the barrage of punches, you go all out for the KO.
Dallas has faced Boston five times this year.
Dallas has lost all five times.
They’ve lost by 28, 9, 18, 7, 7.
That’s an average of 13.8 per game and every one of those wins are by enough points to cover tonight’s spread.

Sometimes you just have to go with the obvious.

I’m 3-0 on NBA bets so even if I lose this one I’ve still got a profit. And even if Boston comes up short tonight I can come right back with them to finish the job at home in the next game.

Today’s play:

Bos +1

Recap: 1-0 (Ov 13’ with Lively)
Record: 8-5 (all action size bets)
UFL (2-2)
WNBA (3-3)
NBA (3-0; 1-0 on Favs, 2-0 on prop bets)

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