Battling the Books – June 12

Looking for Lively to Come Alive Tonight

NBA Prop Bet Boston at Dallas

Sunday night I nailed my prop bet for Luca Doncic Over 9’ rebounds when he grabbed 11. That same prop is available tonight and it’s at that same number, 9’. The books wised up and added some juice to it, but not much at -125. The 9’ is still a bad number based on all the stats I laid out in Sunday’s column, not to mention adding one more win to the numbers for Sunday’s game. But Lucas’s rebounds for home games during the playoffs brings his averages down so I’m going to look elsewhere tonight.

When I look at player prop bets to buy I like to use Overs on players from the team I think is going to win and Unders on teams that I think are going to lose. I’m not sure Dallas will get a win tonight, (Boston looks pretty strong and I wouldn’t be surprised if they sweep) but I do know I’m going to get a top effort from the Mavs at home, down 0-2, so I’m looking for an Over to play using one of their guys.

Doncic is too obvious and his numbers are juiced to the high side.
Can’t use Irving cuz he’s been a no-show in too many games this postseason.
I’ve got Dereck Lively circled for points and rebounds.

Tonight’s number is 13’.
His regular season average per game shows 8.8 points, 6.9 rebounds. A combined 15.7, which puts me two full points over what I need tonight.

His postseason average shows 7.8 points per game and 7.1 rebounds, a combined 14.9 which also covers tonight’s number.

But it’s his numbers at home during the playoffs that have me buying in on him tonight.

In seven postseason games at home he’s averaging 9.7 points and 7 rebounds, a combined 16.7, which is a solid 3 points over the number the books hung on him tonight.

In those seven games he’s covered tonight’s number five of seven times, 71%.
One of the two misses was by just a half point when he landed on 13.
The only game he didn’t come close was when he put up a total of nine points and rebounds, but that was against Minnesota, the number one defense in the league.

Today’s play:

Dereck Lively Ov 13’ points and rebounds, -124
Recap: 0-1 (lost with Las Vegas last night)
Record: *7-5 (all action size bets)
UFL (2-2)
WNBA (3-3)
NBA (1-0 on Favs, 1-0 on prop bets)
*I made an error in yesterday’s record, it was 7-4 not 7-3.