Battling the Books – June 11
Track Your Play!!!
In previous columns I mentioned a few different topics I planned on discussing in future articles.
Here’s the list, in the order they appeared:
- Why I bet the same size unit on my wagers and recommend you do too
- Different color pens and how they help
- Details on the different methods I use to handicap
- The MOST important advice I can give sports bettors – keep a database or log book and TRACK YOUR PLAY!!!
- The “Due” Factor
I was going to start picking them off one by one, starting today with the first topic on the list. But since number four is the most important one, the one that REALLY CAN help bettors improve their bottom line, it makes sense to start there.
What’s YOUR record?
It never ceases to amaze me how a handicapper will do all kinds of research on stats from the two teams playing in a game he’s thinking of betting on but doesn’t look at his own stats – because he doesn’t have any!
He’ll look at a team’s W/L record, SU and ATS.
He’ll research how they play at Home or on the Road.
When looking at a play on a total, he’ll look at their records on Overs and Unders and he’ll check their PPG (Points Per Game) average on offense and defense.
But he doesn’t know his record when he bets on Favorites or Dogs, Overs or Unders.
Because he doesn’t have the data.
You think maybe that has something to do with the fact that 98% of sports bettors lose?
Hell yeah it does!
Charting your play may not be enough to make you profitable (it’s just one of many factors involved) but it will definitely improve your win percentage.
Me? I play more Unders than Overs.
Why?
Because I have years of data that tells me the handicapping methods I use have a higher win percentage on Unders.
Same reason why my college football unit is larger than my NFL and NBA unit – because I have years of data telling me where it’s best for me to invest my sports betting dollars.
If you don’t track, chart, and incorporate your own records in your handicapping then you’re doing your bankroll a serious disservice.
Track Your Play.
And use it.
Recap: 1-0
Record: 7-3
UFL (2-2)
WNBA (3-1)
NBA (2-0; 1-0 on prop bets)
Review: My Sunday wager on Luca Over 9’ rebounds was not looking good when he went into halftime with just 3. And in my head I was already starting to formulate my next article, outing him as a chubby, lazy slacker who just wants to shoot the ball and can’t be bothered hustling for my rebounds.
But he ended up with 11, banking me a unit and making me look like a subgenius in my write-up/analysis. So I won’t mention that he’s a chubby, lazy slacker.
Today’s play:
The Minnesota Lynx (at Las Vegas tonight) qualify for one of my WNBA handicapping methods. This play is just 3-5 on the season, making it a solid Fade at 62%.
Ugly stat warning: On the Rd Min is 4-1 ATS. More ugliness: LV is just 1-4 ATS at Hm.
But the method I use for this play is based on trend reversal, so those numbers fit right in with my expectation for the outcome of this contest.
And BTW – H2H? The Aces beat the Lynx by 14 in Min earlier this year.
Lv -6