Battling the Books – June 1

I have different goals than most bettors do, and I highly recommend them to others who also battle the books. Especially new bettors.

Three of them make up the guiding principles I use throughout each sports season.

I’ll share them with you, starting with my first and most important goal…

Goal Number One: Do Not Lose Money

Some will say, “What kind of goal is that? The goal should be to make money!”

It’s called a realistic goal.

Fact is, MOST bettors lose.
Estimates have it as high as 98% (except on the internet, where 98% of bettors say they win.)So, as the physicians’ creed goes, “Primum non nocere” or “First, do no harm” – in this case, to my bankroll.

If I don’t play to win money, then why bet?
I didn’t say I don’t play to win, I said it’s not my first goal…

Goal Number Two: Finish the Season with a Profit

Any profit.

Goal Number Three: The Grail, 67%

In any endeavor in life you should always have a goal that’s difficult to reach, one you have to work hard at to achieve.
It builds character. It builds strength.A win percentage of 67% is a lofty goal when you consider that in order to finish the season with a profit a sports bettor needs to hit 54% of his play, and remember that, as noted above, 98% of bettors can’t hit 54%.

I have other goals of course, like having fun.
And sports betting provides three kinds of fun.I’ll get into those three different types of fun in my next column, but right now I’m running short on time and long on word count so let’s get to today’s plays.

UFL

San Antonio and St Louis play each other in the playoffs next week and home field for that game is at stake today. With the average league attendance at just 10,000 per game, home field in the UFL doesn’t really mean much for seven of the eight teams.
But then there’s the Battlehawks, who average 35,000 per game.
St Louis wants that advantage, and obviously San Antonio wants to avoid playing on the road in front of a hostile crowd, especially one that’s three times larger than the ones they’re used to seeing.

St Louis is a league best 4-0 at home.

St Louis beat San Antonio by seven points in the first meeting at San Antonio.

I’ve got QB McCarran back under center with the Battlehawks, while the Brahmas are missing their best RB McFarland and star WR receiver Latimer.

And I have a very favorable line at -3 with a team that’s undefeated at home.

I’m a HUGE proponent of betting the same dollar size unit on every game (more on that in an upcoming column) with limited exceptions. One of those exceptions is when I’m betting a game only because it’s on TV and I want to have a rooting interest, like today. I keep a separate record for these plays in my charts and I’ll do so in this column. With such limited choice today (just one WNBA game and two UFL games) that’s what I’ll have, a small money action bet.

My Pick

St Louis -3

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