Battling the Books | July 6th

Don’t Do the Due Factor

In my PredictEm post on June 7th, titled, “Weighing Trends” I said:

“In a future article, I’ll give you my thoughts on The Due Factor” as it relates to sports betting and the lesson we can all learn about betting on it from the degenerate Gambler Herschel Schmoikel Krustofsky, AKA Krusty the Clown.”

So let’s get into it.

Bettors often use “The Due Factor” as a reason for placing a bet. Example – “The Yankees have lost six games in a row, five of them by just one run. They’re due!”

If I were ‘capping that Yankee game, I would look at their recent play and factor that in, but would I make a bet based on the reasoning that “they’re due?”
No.

I don’t give much weight to the Due Factor. The Yankees aren’t going to play any harder in that seventh game than they did in their previous six losses.

Nor would I jump on the recent trend and bet against them either. If I had banked a few units betting against them for a couple of the games during that six-game losing streak, I might ride that horse until it bucks me. But would I jump on an already-established streak? No. See “reversion towards the mean.” (As I advised last week, if you don’t know what “reversion towards the mean” means don’t make another bet until you are familiar with the concept.)

Was not betting on the Due Factor a lesson I learned the hard way, by losing bets based on it? No. Not all of life’s hard lessons have to be learned first hand. Smart bettors learn from mistakes made by others. In this case, I learned from Krusty the Clown.

Krusty’s Accountant: “Let me get this straight. You took all the money you made franchising your name and bet it AGAINST the Harlem Globetrotters?”

Krusty: “I thought the Generals were due!”

T

he Due Factor – Don’t do it!
Thus endeth the lesson.

Recap: 0-1
Record: 3-2

Review: My last pick lost with Minnesota -2′.
I was okay at the start of the third quarter.
Then I lost Napheesa Collier to an injury.

Napheesa Collier, my top scorer.
Napheesa Collier, my top rebounder.

And I watched helplessly as Minnesota went scoreless for more than six minutes.

Six minutes without a single point, in a game that has quarters of only ten minutes, instead of the twelve-minute quarters they play in the pros.

It’s a loss that left me frustrated after the game ended. Not because I lost a bet. That happens, you take it in stride, you move on. But I’m not happy because now I’ll never know if I had the game handicapped correctly or not.

Only one late game today, and nothing qualifies for any of my handicapping methods.
But I had no plays yesterday and I want some action today so I’m going to use two prop plays.

Myesha Hines Allen has been seeing increased minutes due to injuries on the Washington Mystics. Her points total today is set at 9′.
She’s hit that number in four of her last five games.
When getting 20 or more minutes of playing time she’s hit that number four out of five times, the loan loss coming by a half point.
If she gets 20 or more today and should, the odds say she’ll surpass 9′.

Kayla McBride is averaging eight 3-point attempts per game over the last two games, and that’s WITH Napheesa Collier in the lineup.
If Collier is out as expected, McBride will become Minnesota’s top-scoring option.
Washington ranks near the bottom of the league for 3-pointers allowed.
The book is offering Kayla at 2′.
I’ll take the over on that.

Myisha Hines-Allen Ov 9′ points, -117
Kayla McBride Over 2′ three pointers -117