Battling the Books | July 28th

Hoping the Sun Don’t Burn Me Again

Recap: 0-1
Record: 15-11

Review: Lost on the Under 152’ in the Connecticut/Washington game.
What happened?
Let’s look at the quarters.

The third quarter saw 34 points scored. Extrapolated over a full game of four quarters that would be 136 points scored, 16 under where I needed to be to stay Under 152’.

The fourth quarter saw the same 34 points scored. Extrapolated over a full game that’s 136, again 16 points under where I needed to be.

That is the type of scoring I expected from the number one defense in the league and the team that plays at the slowest pace.

So what happened to my Under?

Well, the game went into overtime. But that wasn’t the problem. The problem was a 53 point scored in the first quarter, which extrapolates to 212 points, a pace where the game would land a horrific 60 points over where I needed it to be at.

In the first quarter the Mystics shot almost 70% on three pointers and better than 60% FG, so I was pretty much dead in the water after the first quarter, meaning I not only lost the game but didn’t even have any fun watching it on TV.

I’m taking a close look at that game in this review because I have to use Connecticut again tonight.
I have two choices:

First, I have Connecticut in the same play on the Over as last night, record now 1-1. No edge there.
Tonight’s number is even lower than last night, it’s at 150’. They’re facing Atlanta and these two met earlier in the season and only scored 119. That’s 31 points fewer than tonight’s number. But last year ALL four meetings easily cleared tonight’s number so I’m not touching the total in this one.

Second, their opponent tonight, Atlanta, fits one of my methods for identifying Wrong Favs. This spot has an overall record of 5-10. Broken down into the subset of Home/Road, the road team is 3-6, a 67% Fade.

With a 67% fade available to me it looks like an easy decision to make, right?
Wrong.

As a sports bettor, I have a lot of stupid superstitions. One of them is do not bet on a system that you did not bet the night before and it won, meaning you lost out on banking a unit.
Last night I had three different plays that fit the systems I use. I chose incorrectly with the Under in the Connecticut game. I could have chosen one from the same play I have in this game tonight, the best method I have for picking Wrong Favs. It said Indy should have been a -1’ point Fav vs. Seattle, who was -8. The Storm won by 12 and I missed out on the winner. Tonight that place says Atlanta should be -1.

I’m in the unenviable position of being Johnny Come Lately, jumping on a play that won last night, a play that I ignored.
I’m going to take it anyway and hope that I prove that it is just a silly stupid superstition.
I have to use the data I chart so I’m riding with a Fade on this 3-6 spot.

Connecticut -9′