Battling the Books | July 20

Searching for the Golden Fleece with Cameron and the Argonauts

Recap: 1-1
Record: CFL 1-1 (Fav 1-0, Ov 0-1)
WNBA 10-10

Review: My bet on the Over missed by 18 points, so thank God for that last-minute dose of common sense that made me go with my head and not my heart. I placed my bet on the team I thought would win, not the team I wanted to root for, and Ottawa rewarded me with a 7-point win as a 1-point Fav, giving me a split on the night. Considering the fact that I’m fumbling around here trying to figure this league out for the next couple of weeks, I’m okay with 1-1 on my first night seeing action.

For tonight, the question is, will my basketball handicapping methods successfully transfer over to football? Hell if I know.
Let’s find out.
Here’s what I have today.
One of my situational spots requires three different parameters to be met to qualify as a play.
Here they are:

One – my second best method for picking Wrong Favs (let’s call these Play B, for clarification purposes) has a Dog that it says should be the Fav.

Two – my best system for WF’s (let’s call these Play A) disagrees (in other words, A says the current Fav is the correct Fav.)

Three – my line for Play A is five or more points higher than the number the books have placed on the game

If a game fits these three qualifiers, Fade the Dog from Play B.

Sounds a little convoluted and complicated, but it’s not. Here’s what I have for this play in basketball in the current or recently played season:

College basketball: 8-27

NBA: 0-2

WNBA: (current) 2-4

The reason there are only two NBA plays is i didn’t start handicapping it until mid-March. I’m not a big NBA fan, I much prefer the college game, so tracking for the pro level didn’t start until the college season was winding down.

WNBA tracking has been for the entire season, but only six games have qualified thus far. But at 2-4 I’m not complaining, it’s been another profitable Fade thus far.

The play was absolutely lights out for the college season, hitting at a 77% Fade rate.
I didn’t play all of them, it wasn’t until I had some data charted that I noticed it was a profitable play and started using them.

Which brings us to today in the CFL:

Play B says Hamilton should be the Fav.

Play A says Toronto is the correct Fav.

Play A has a line that is more than five points higher than the current line, Tor -2′.

Last night saw one of the 0-5 teams, Edmonton, lose again and go to 0-6. Today we have the other 0-5 team in action, the Hamilton Tiger Cats.
Toronto QB Cameron Dukes is going to have to continue to win if he wants to keep the starting job when Trouble Boy (a great Dave Edmunds song) Chad Kelly (a wasted talent) comes back from his latest suspension. Off a four interception performance the week before, Dukes cleaned up his mistakes and led the Argos to a 37-18 win at Montreal last week. He completed 16 of 20 passes for 131 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT’s.
He also rushed nine times for 46 yards.
Nothing spectacular, just a blue-collar effort that got the job done.
A similar effort this week should get the same results.

Today’s play

Tor -2′.