Battling the Books | July 2
The Indiana Caitlin’s Visit Sin City
I saw a conversation between a group of sports bettors.
A guy says he’s going all in on the Over.
Everyone tells him not to do it, but to no avail.
At halftime, the game is on a pace to stay way under his number. And one of the guys offers the following advice:
“Try to reduce your losses by doing a hedge at halftime.”
A hedge.
For a guy that went all in.
I want to be THAT guy’s bookie.
* * * *
Recap: 1-0
Record: 1-0
July got off to a good start last night.
Despite having a 3-6 stat that said Fade Seattle, my read on taking the Storm -11′ was based on their total domination at home, winning six of their last seven games by double digits, facing a Dallas team that had lost five of their last six games by double digits.
Seattle was up by eight at the half.
Seattle won the third quarter by 21 points.
Seattle won by the game 24 points.
That makes it two straight wins for Seattle over Dallas, both by more than 20 points.
NEXT!
When I did my WNBA breakdown in my PredictEm article on June 30th, I noted that the only category I have a losing record in is Favs:
“Favs are at 4-6. But that category is only two games below .500, so it’s too early to abandon them.”
The record is 6-6 now.
At 4-6, it was too early to stop playing ON them and too early to start playing AGAINST them with a Fade.
It’s important that I do well when I’m playing Favs because the methods I use to determine which games to buy have kicked out more Favs than every other category (Dogs, Overs, Unders) combined. I’d like to get more plays on totals, where I’m 4-2 (Ov 2-1, Un 2-1), but unfortunately, despite having three different methods for identifying a play on them, I’m not getting a lot of games qualifying for those.
But . . . I have one today.
Today’s play
Tonight, the Las Vegas Aces (the top-scoring offense in the league, 87.8 PPG) host the Indiana Fever (the second-worst defense in the league, surrendering 87.7 PPG), and the game fits one of my methods for picking totals.
It says the game stays Under.
The overall record for the play is just 3-3, but the Unders are 1-2, calling for a Fade on this one.
On Sunday, I used Indiana in an Over against the Phoenix Mercury, and the game stayed Under by four points, but it wasn’t the Fever’s fault; they scored seven points above their average.
Thus far this season, Indiana’s been your best bet when looking for Overs at 14-6. Vegas ranks third at 9-7 for Overs. These two met earlier this season on 5/25. Vegas fell one point short of putting up 100 against Indy’s defense. The game landed on 179 and that was without Vegas star Chelsea Gray, who has put up an average of 15 PPG in the last two games when she’s back to playing her standard allotment of minutes.
The number is all over the board on this one.
It opened at 173.5, but books are getting pounded on the Over, and while there are still some 175-177 out there, the common, most readily available line is at 178′, so that’s what I’ll use here.
I don’t like riding a popular pick, which the Over is tonight, and I normally don’t take a play where I miss out on the best number by five or more points, but I’ll chance it on this one.
Ind/LV Ov 178′
Open bet: Oklahoma -40′
June record, all sports, 16-13
Question! Did you know that you could be betting on games at discounted odds? And it’s FREE! Stop overpaying for odds and starting enjoying favorites that cost less and underdogs that pay more at BetAnySports Sportsbook! They’ve been on Predictem for over a decade with ZERO complaints! Click here to signup now!