Battling the Books | July 16

Relying on Reese to Right the Ship

Here’s my observation on, and advice for, the WNBA as we come into the break.
There’s not a lot you can do about all the amateurish missed layups, the tip-shots from under the basket that end up as air balls, or the ridiculous amount of turnovers.
They are part of the WNBA game and fans have learned to accept them.
But you can improve the flow of the game by fixing the momentum-killing overly long reviews.

In the second half of Sunday’s Indiana at Minnesota game, there were TWO reviews that took almost a full five minutes before the final decisions were announced on what was clear to everyone else after watching just one replay.

And another thing you can cut out is the extreme close-up shots of the referees when they make the call. The last thing anyone wants to see after having the game interrupted for five minutes is another minute wasted as the ref gets her “Mr. DeMille, I’m ready for my close-up” moment.
Look at the film, do your review, go back on the court, make the call and let the game start again. We can live without the ref’s camera time.

Recap: 0-2
Record: 8-8, -120
(-120 based on standard odds of -110/100; I added a dollar amount to my record because of the -150 loss on Bonner. Posting a record of 8-8 would be misleading if the eight losses included picks where more than standard odds were offered.)

Review: And here’s some additional information on my recent topic of silly, stupid superstitions regarding sports betting. When you say things like, “My longest losing streak has been two days in my time here at here at PredictEm” what you’re really doing is tempting the fates and asking for trouble.
Trouble like a 0-2 day.
It wasn’t what I intended, but I did prove my point about locking up a profit when you have one. I clearly set an example – of what NOT to do.

In the morning game, I lost on DeWanna Bonner Ov 1′ three-pointers when she not only took fewer than her average number of 3-pointers per game, but took more than 50% less.
She ended up with only three attempts on the day and missed all of them.

In the afternoon game, I watched as Minnesota showed a disgusting lack of heart. Starting the 4th quarter at home with a 7-point lead, the Lynx allowed Indiana to get back in the game.

At the halfway mark of the 4th quarter they were tied. It was crunch time, at home, against a young Indiana team.
And Minnesota collapsed.
By the quarter’s end, the 4-9 on the road Fever had doubled up on the 10-2 at home Lynx, winning the quarter 28-14.
It was a total collapse on both offense and defense and the home team should be embarrassed and ashamed of their “effort.”

And I should be embarrassed too. It was only four days ago that I checked my numbers and wrote about how almost 70% of my losses have come from bets involving just two teams – Connecticut and Minnesota. And on a day when I’m fighting to close out the month with a profit I use not one but both of them in my picks.
I’m not saying I wouldn’t have bet them, but I should have been aware of the stat and factored it in with the rest of my handicap.
There’s a good chance I would have dropped at least one of the two.
A good memory is essential to doing well in the difficult task of staying above that 53% mark.
And I failed at it on Sunday.

Todays play

There are different money management strategies you can apply when you’ve lost a couple of games in a row. Times Like These (a great song by the Foo Fighters), I like to take a couple of days off, but with only two days left before the break, I’ve got to come up with a play or two if I’m going to get back in black.

Looking at my charts, my strongest play so far has been props at 6-2. So this morning, I abandoned my normal handicapping process (another good strategy to shake a losing streak – stop what you’ve been doing that hasn’t been working and try something a little different) and devoted my allotted time for handicapping to researching props only.

For tonight’s play, I’m Calling All Angels (great song by Jane Siberry.)
Well, not ALL of them, just one really, Angel Reese.

Angel Reese averages 13.5 PPG.
Her number today vs Las Vegas is 13.5 PPG.
And, at Dog odds.
Why the seemingly low number?
It’s not because of the defense she’s facing; the Las Vegas Aces are ranked 7th out of 12 in PPG allowed.
It’s likely because of her recent play.
Three games in a row now she’s coming under her average, BUT she’s been playing under a high level of pressure and scrutiny over her last few games.
On Sunday, July 7th, she set the WNBA record for consecutive games with a double-double.
On Wednesday and Thursday, she added two more to her record.
On Saturday, she finally fell short when she put up 8 points and 16 rebounds.

For the past few weeks the whole WNBA world has been talking about her as she approached the record, tied the record, broke the record, and then set new records. That’s a lot of pressure for anyone, but especially a rookie.
The streak is over, the pressure is off, and I think we see him more relaxed Angel tonight.

In her previous meeting with the Aces this year, she put up 18, and I’m betting I get a similar number from her tonight
Our sponsor Bovada has her at her season average of 13.5, +105. And I bought it.

Reese Ov 13′, +105