Battling the Books | July 12

Betting on Women’s Water Polo (just kidding)

Wednesday night, with no WNBA games on TV, I went channel flipping on my TV looking for some other sporting event I could watch.
And I came upon Women’s Water Polo.
Never saw it before.
Will never see it again.

Team USA was playing Italy, and for some strange reason, Flava Flav was there, talking with the announcers.
But I digress.
I was able to stay with it for all of five minutes before I reached for the remote. The best I can make of it is it’s soccer, but played in the water.
Yes, it’s as boring as it sounds.

But it’s an easy fix.
Here are my notes for the head of FINA (yeah, I had to look that up) the governing body of the International Women’s Water Polo League:

One – lose the bathing caps, they’re gender neutralizing. The egg head look is not very attractive.

Two – lose the one piece suits. (Not entirely, although that would make it easier to watch. I mean “lose them” as in replace them with two-piece suits.)

Three – allow chicken fights, where the players sit on the shoulders of one of their teammates, straddling her head with their wet, well-toned thighs.
The obvious reason for this being that the additional height advantage would lead towards more scoring.
(Also, women having chicken fights would add an element of suspense that would keep viewers riveted to their screens.)
(Also – you’ll need an editor who is quick on the delay button, and at putting up those little black boxes that block out body parts you can only see on cable.)

Girls with long, wet hair, in bikini tops, jumping up and down in the water, is definitely the direction you want to go in to increase your popularity.
Take a cue from women’s volleyball.
It’s just as boring to watch as your “sport” but has other “ASSets” that can hold a viewers attention.

Betting lines on the games wouldn’t hurt either.

You’re welcome.

* * * 

 STOP WASTING MONEY! STOP LAYING -110 ODDS ON GAMES! LAY ONLY -105 AT BAS!

And now, back to our regularly scheduled program.

Recap: 2-0
Record: 8-4, 67%
(67%, The Grail, the highest goal I have. Hello, old friend. Stick around for a day or two, why don’t ya.)

At 8-4, I’m now guaranteed a win for the month of July. As I mentioned in a previous post: “Always finish with a profit, even if you have to shut down early on the week (or month).”
There are only five days left with games on the schedule in July, so even if I go 0-3 on my next three picks I would shut down for the month and bank what I have left.

Review: My analysis called for playing the Over in WNBA games with teams who are in game two of B2B’s (Back to Back.)
The play is based on the belief that they’ll get tired and not play as hard on defense.
And if they ARE going to get tired, when is it most likely that it will happen?
In the second half and the fourth quarter.

First half yesterday saw 78 points scored
Second half saw 89 points scored.
The theory was right on track.

The Over is now 9-3 in games with teams who are playing the second night in a row in a B2B situation. That’s 75% percent.

Expecting that the total would go higher, I bought the game the night before at 165.
In fairness, for my PredictEm pick I used the common number available the next morning when my play was published, 166′.
Things were looking bleak but then Kayla Thornton hits a three pointer on the last shot of the game, and it lands on 167.
Sometimes you die by the hook, sometimes . . .

My second bet yesterday was Marina Mabrey Over 1′ three pointers. Back on June 23rd, I lost by the hook on my pick, Chicago -1′, when Mabrey missed two free throws in the final seconds of the game. When I did my review the next day I said she’d earned a permanent place on my sh*t list. But I gave her a chance to get out of the dog house yesterday, and she received redemption, hitting 4 of 5 three pointers, twice as many as I needed for my other winner on the day.

NEXT!!

Today’s play.

I’m not wild about going back to an Over tonight after I got lucky and barely won using one last night. Even more so when tonight’s number is almost 10 points higher than yesterday’s.
But I have a play that calls for a Fade on an Under tonight. Let’s take a look at it.
I have three methods for handicapping Ov/Un’s.
My second best (record-wise) method says take Phoenix/Indy Un 175′;tonight.
The record for this play is 2-4.
Digging deeper into a subset, when my best Ov/Un method disagrees with this secondary method the record is 0-2.
That’s two decent stats that say Fade this play and take the Over tonight.

Let’s see if the PPG averages support tonight’s number.
Phoenix games average 168 points per game.
Indiana games average the same, 168 points per game.
Both are 8 points fewer than tonight’s number. Not good.
They met once earlier this year and the game landed on 170. Also not good.
Phoenix is just 9-13 Ov/Un. Again, not good.
Indy is 15-8 to the Over, which is about the only stat I have in my favor.

Let’s look at recent play, last five games.

Just two of Phoenix’s last five games surpassed tonight’s number, 175′.
Not one of Phoenix’s last five road games surpassed tonight’s number.

Not ONE Indiana game saw enough points scored to cover tonight’s number.
Looking deeper into their home games only, again, not one saw enough points scored when using tonight’s number.

Just about everything except my own numbers on the game say this should stay Under.
So I’m going to ignore my numbers and go with my gut.

Our sponsor Bovada (75% bonus when you deposit using Bitcoin!) is currently offering the game at 176. And that’s where I’m going.

Phx/Ind Un 176.