Battling the Books | July 11

A Big Play on Maybrey Today

Recap: 1-0
Record: 6-4

Review:

I took Phoenix -7′ to beat Dallas.
They were up by 24 points in the 4th quarter when they put their reserves in.
They won by 16.
They covered by 8′.

Dallas is no longer tied for the worst record in the WNBA. They are now the not-so-proud sole owners of it. Like I said in my pick/analysis yesterday – they stink.
Not much more ‘capping needed than that!

If any of you bet Dallas because:
Phoenix won the first three of four meetings between these two this year,
and . . .
you felt that it’s difficult to sweep a four-game regular season series,
and . . .
you figured that Dallas was due for a W,
I recommend you take a minute to read my post from July 6th on The Due Factor.

NEXT!

Big win yesterday, gave me a little breathing room as I look to close out July on the good side of the grass.
Only five days left this month with games on the schedule. That means I can expect approximately five picks. I’m 6-4 for July, which means if I go 2-3 I can finish the month hitting my bare minimum goal – don’t damage your bankroll, and my secondary goal – finish with a profit, ANY profit.
My next goal is to go 3-2.
If I can hit that, I’ll be VERY satisfied.
I’m a grinder. If you’re looking to get rich by betting on sports, “Battling the Books” is not the place for you. You need directions to Fantasyland (hint – it doesn’t exist.)

Today’s play.

It’s rare for WNBA teams to play two nights in a row. Some teams go an entire season without being in that situation. So it’s way out of the ordinary to see New York in it for a third time, facing the Chicago Sky today, after seeing Washington and Atlanta in B2B (back-to-back) games earlier this season.
Making my play even more enticing is the fact that Chicago is also in the B2B situation.
In the Washington game, NY was in the A-H sequence, an Away game followed by a Home game the next day.
The Atlanta game was in the H-A sequence, a Home game followed by an Away game.
Today’s game is H-H.

NY won both games SU.
NY split the two games ATS, 1-1.
They beat Washington by 5 points, laying 15.
They beat Atlanta by 21, laying 9.

Both games went Over.
The Washington game went over by 25 points.
The Atlanta game went over by 5 points.

Today’s number is NY -11, 165.

The Washington game saw a total of 181 points scored.
The Atlanta game saw a total of 171 points scored.
Both games saw more points scored than the total on today’s game.

NY’s offense averages 86 PPG.
In the second game of the B2B (back-to-back) series, they scored 93 against Washington and 96 against Atlanta.
NY’s B2B offense averaged 8.5 more points than their season average.

NY’s defense gives up an average of 77.5 PPG.
In game two of B2B’s they gave up 88 to Washington and 75 to Atlanta.
NY’s B2B defense averaged 8 points more than their season average.

Chicago’s offense has a higher PPG than both Washington and Atlanta.
Chicago’s defense gives up the same PPG as Atlanta and only slightly fewer than Washington.

See where I’m going with this?
No? Need more?

All the stats above are team-based, factoring in today’s opponents only. Let’s take a look at B2B games from the full league point of view.

There have been 11 times this season where a team played B2B. Teams went Over the total in 8 of those 11 games, 72%.

In one of those games, both teams played the night before, so not counting that game twice, the record is 7-3, 70%.

Want more?
In those games, 7 of 10 went over today’s number.

Tonight is only the second time this season BOTH teams played the night before. In the first game, Dallas at Washington, the total was 163.
They scored 176 pushing it over by double digits, 13 points.
Dallas scored three PPG more than their season average.
Washington scored 13 more than their season average.
Both team’s defenses gave up more than their PPG season average.

Add it all up and it seems that teams are a little tired in B2B’s, and don’t do a very good job of getting back on defense after their offensive possessions.
It’s not much of a stretch to see today’s game has a good chance of going Over, and that’s what I bought last night.

The opening number has gone up, as I figured it would which is why I bought it yesterday (as I’ve been reminding you, we will soon have a way where I can get my early and late buys published at PredictEm for anyone who’s interested.)
Today, the number is at 166′, so that’s what I’ll use here.

And also, I’m doing something I never do, I’m going to lay heavy juice on a prop tonight,
Marina Mabrey Ov 1′ -180 on three pointers.
Why?
She’s gone Over this number in seven of her last ten games. One of the games she didn’t go over she only had two attempts.

She’s gone Over this number in both games facing New York this season (three if you include when they met in the preseason and she hit four of seven.)

In her last 10 games she’s averaged 6.8 attempts.

It’s not something I would do if I were in the red, but my balance is on the plus side, so I’ve got some cash to play with.
But what sealed the deal for me on this play involves a little pretzel logic. Yesterday’s write-up included a prop bet on Natasha Cloud, Ov 14′ points scored .
You didn’t see it because right before I hit the “send” button to submit my article I deleted it.
I had stats to support the pick but it was just a gut feeling I had that I shouldn’t buy it.
She landed on 14.
Had I played it, I would have lost -120.
So I look at tonight’s bet as if I’m only laying -60.
Like I said, pretzel logic, but I’m going with it anyway.

Chi/NY Ov 166′

Mabtey Ov 1′ three-pointers, -180

June record, all sports, 16-13

Open bets:
Oklahoma -40′ (investment size wager)
Cincinnati Bengals Season Wins Un 10′ +108 (TV action-size bet)